Written by Zach Harper | 17 April 2009

The title contender of the future squares off against a team desperate to get out of the first round.


How the Trailblazers Got Here
The Trailblazers (54-28) have been picked many experts as the team to beat a few years from now, and with great reason. GM Kevin Pritchard has been the king of recent drafts, finding ways to land Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Fernandez and yes, Greg Oden. Roy (22.6 ppg, 5.1 apg) has emerged as one of the great clutch players in the game, even burning the Rockets on Nov. 6th with a brilliant last-second shot in overtime. Aldridge (18.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg) ranks as one of the most underrated players in the game. The Blazers got it done with defense and an astounding young roster. Consider that the 11th pick of last year's draft, Jerryd Bayless is the third-string point guard and you get an idea of how deep this squad is. The Trailblazers finished the season on a 9-1 run and are the type of team nobody wants to face, a mixture of youth and ignorance to the pressure around them.

How the Rockets Got Here
What a strange trip this season has been for the Rockets (53-29). The acquisition of Ron Artest in the off-season was supposed to give the team a terrific trio of Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming and Artest. It didn't end turn out that way as T-Mac bounced back and forth between sitting and starting, finally deciding to shut it down for the year. The Rockets then traded Rafer Alston to the Orlando Magic, getting Kyle Lowry and Brian Cook in return.  With T-Mac and Alston gone, the team committed to an offense that runs through Yao Ming, while also taking the pressure off of him with offense from Artest (12.7 ppg) and the scrappy Luis Scola (12.7 ppg), and a return to defensive intensity that former head coach Jeff Van Gundy would smile about, holding opponents to 94.4 points per game. The Rockets had a chance to go as high as No. 2 in the Western Conference standings. Unfortunately for Houston, they caved in the final night of the regular season, losing to the Dallas Mavericks and dropping all the way to the 5th seeding.

Match-up History
06/07: Tied 2-2 in Regular Season
07/08: Rockets 4-0 in Regular Season
08/09: Rockets 2-1 in Regular Season

Match-Ups by Position:
Point Guard: Steve Blake vs. Aaron Brooks
Steve Blake (11 ppg, 2.5 rpg) has been the steady as she goes type of point guard, never really standing out but still doing enough to keep the starting job. He averaged 5 assists per game and has been a deadly three-point shooter this year, shooting .427 from behind the line, which is impressive considering he has taken more three-pointers this year than ever in his career.
 
Brooks (11 ppg, 3 apg) assumed the starting PG spot for the Rockets after Alston was moved. Unlike Alston, he is an aggressive player, sometimes frustratingly so, and is still coming into his own. Kyle Lowry (7.6 ppg, 3.6 apg) has cut into Brooks' minutes, so the starting point guard position is really a two-headed beast for the Rockets.
Edge: Push

Shooting Guard: Brandon Roy vs. Ron Artest
Roy won the Western Conference Player of the Week honor this week and is the one player the Rockets must key on. His numbers against the Rockets this season are lower than against the rest of the league, shooting significantly worse (.393 fg% vs. Houston to .495 fg% vs. the Western Conference) and averaging 1 more turnover a game in the three games they played. That won't stop him from taking the shot at the end of the game every time and believing he will make it. He more often than not does.

Artest (17.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.3 apg) has been a blessing to the Rockets. He has given the team a junkyard mentality and shouldered some of the burden of the team when T-Mac went down. Unfortunately, he falls into T-Mac tendencies, settling for the outside shot when he can break down his defender and get to the basket. He also is in a bit of a shooting slump, hitting only 2-13 and 4-13 from the field in the last two games. Still, he is easily the best defender on the Rockets and will not shy away from D'ing up anyone on the opposing team. His defense against Roy may be the X-Factor in the entire series.
Edge: Push

Small Forward: Nicolas Batum vs. Shane Battier
Batum (5.4 ppg, 2.8 apg) worked his way into the starting spot early in the season, and is helped by the bench play of Travis Outlaw. He's young and fearless, and has played particularly well against teh Rockets this season, finishing with a .625 from the field and .667 from the three-point line. You might chalk it up to Batum being motivated to burn the Rockets after they traded him last off-season right after choosing him with the 25th pick. Batum has been fighting off flu symptoms recently, but he should be 100% when the series starts rolling.

Shane Battier (7.3 ppg, 4.8 rbg 2.3 apg) has made a career out of taking charges and stands against his opponent. He's not a threat offensively but he always finds a way to hit the three when Yao Ming kicks it out to him on the baseline. Stats don't do justice to the effort Battier puts in the game. Plus, he's one of the few Duke Blue Devils I like.
Edge: Rockets

Power Forward: LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Luis Scola
It was believed that Greg Oden would complement Aldridge (18.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.9 apg)this season down low. That didn't exactly work out, but it hasn't stopped Aldridge from having a great season, virtually matching the numbers he put up in his sophomore season. Aldridge averages 5.3 points a game more against the Rockets than the rest of the West, and he will be a tough match for Scola, who has shown that he struggles against bigger power forwards. The 6-foot-11 Aldridge will use his size to shoot over Scola consistently.

Luis Scola (12.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.5 apg) was my pick last year as the dark horse for Rookie of the Year, and the Argentine has done nothing to sway my opinion of him. He has improved slightly in nearly every statistical category this season and hustles more than Don King. There is nothing pretty about Scola's game, well maybe people would say his hair, but he is a heady forward that always seems to find himself around the ball on missed shots. His defensive approach can either help or burn the Rockets, as he is prone to a few flops every night. When it works, it can get the opposing player into foul trouble. When it doesn't, it gets him in foul trouble early and puts Yao in a position where he has to step up on the block, essentially causing a domino effect of foul issues. Scola does shoot .690 from the field against the Blazers, so that's a bonus. 
Edge: Trailblazers

Center: Joel Przybilla vs. Yao Ming
Ok, we're noticing a trend here. The Rockets once had Przybilla (5.5 ppg, 8.8 rpg) on their roster. Now he is in Portland. Maybe we should assume there will be a blockbuster deal this off-season that sends Yao Ming and Ron Artest to the Blazers also . Or maybe I am looking for a way to fill space instead of talking about Przybilla. He has the misfortune of facing Yao in the low post. He only averaged 3.3 ppg against Houston this year, so his job is simple. Keep Yao far away from the basket and wear him down. Good luck.

Yao Ming (19.7, 9.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.95 bpg) is now the face of the Rockets franchise. I have predicted that this will be his playoff coming out party. Much of that will depend on how sore Yao's foot is. He aggravated it recently and it will impact how many minutes Yao can log. It is imperative that the Rockets run through Yao. When they do, they are a title contender. When they don't, well their team looks stagnant and makes head coach Rick Adelman look like he is going to have a Maalox moment. Yao is a superb free throw shooter, so there is really no reason to pass up putting the ball in his games late in the game. It is also up to Yao to be more aggressive. He is often pushed off the block too easily. When Brandon Bass is pushing you around, something is wrong. This playoff run will go a long way towards the perception people have of Yao. Oddly enough, Yao averaged 3.6 ppg less this season against the Trailblazers, 16.3, than against other teams in the West, averaging 19.9. If that happens in this series, the Rockets are finished.
Edge: Rockets

Bench: Rodriguez/Fernandez/Outlaw/Frye/Oden vs. Lowry/Wafer/Hayes/Landry
The Trailblazers' bench would probably be good enough to start for the New York Knicks if Isiah Thomas was still coaching. Outlaw and Fernandez are in the top 5 on the team in scoring average. The Rockets' bench has the potential for a huge spark, but they also make you scratch your head at times. Lowry, Wafer and Landry all can give teams fits. We will see how they handle the playoff intensity. 
Edge: Trailblazers

Coach: Nate McMillan vs. Rick Adelman
McMillan has been a great pick-up for the Trailblazers, instilling a great work ethic in the young team and pushing them to a double-digit improvement in wins every season he has been there. He has an 8-8 playoff record and could open eyes this season.

Adelman is one of the most storied coaches in the playoffs this season, taking the Portland Trailblazers to the NBA Finals twice early in his career. His experience didn't translate into wins last year against Utah, as the Rockets bowed out in 6 games, but he is a Coach of the Year candidate and he knows which buttons to push this season with a team that has had a lot to deal with.
Edge: Rockets

X-Factor: Home Court Advantage
I know, I should probably choose an individual player for this category, and I'm tempted to take Greg Oden,but look at these stats. The Trailblazers are 34-7 at home, the Rockets, 33-8. Both teams are 20-21 on the road. The Trailblazers average 99.4 ppg and give up 94.1 per game. The Rockets average 98.4 ppg and give up 94.4 a night. This series is going to seven games and if that is the case, home court will mean everything.

Prediction: Trailblazers in 7
If NBA teams could be represented by movie characters, the Houston Rockets would be Edward Norton as Worm in Rounders. They have the talent and potential to go far, but they always end up screwing you over. That analogy alone is reason enough to choose the Trailblazers, I think. But if that isn't enough, consider this. The Rockets have all the pressure in the world to get out of the first round. The Blazers are carefree. In fact, they might be here a season too soon, and they're peaking at the right time. The Blazers will knock the Rockets out and I will crawl into a hole as I curse Tracy McGrady's name.  

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