Written by Zach Harper | 17 April 2009

The Mamba waits for his next victim.



How Did The Lakers Get Here?
Much like with the Boston Celtics starting their season 27-2, when the Lakers started their season 14-1 with a margin of victory hovering around 15.5 points, most people assumed that the Lakers were penciled in for 70 wins. They showed a defensive intensity that we didn't see with them last year and they really didn't have any flaws. But once again, Andrew Bynum injured his knee and was out for eight weeks that was really more like 10 or 12. And somewhere in the middle of the season the Lakers lost their killer instinct. Perhaps it was apathy or perhaps teams were more ready to face them but they definitely regressed from how they started the season. But at the end of the season, Andrew Bynum returned, Josh Powell and Shannon Brown proved their worth, and once again they look like a shoe-in for the Finals. 65 wins also help that perception.

How Did The Jazz Get Here?
Not a single team had more devastating injuries than the Utah Jazz. It seemed like they didn't have their regular starting lineup and rotation playing together as the pre-season pundits intended until 50 to 55 games into the season. The Jazz had high hopes of using their depth and Deron Williams' growth to catapult into the upper echelon of NBA teams but instead looked like a MASH unit. Utah was as usual amazing at home with a 33-8 record. And they seemed to rebound with a mid-season 12-game winning streak. But they lost were terrible on the road (15-26) and finished the season winning only four of their 12 games to fall from potential homecourt advantage in the first round to the eighth seed and a date with the Lakers.

Match-up History
06/07 - Lakers 2-1 in regular season
07/08 - Lakers 3-1 in regular season, Lakers 4-2 in playoffs
08/09 - Lakers 2-1 in regular season

Match-Ups by Position
Point Guard - Derek Fisher vs. Deron Williams
Let's not beat around the bush here. This match-up is in fact a mismatch and won't be close at any point in this series unless Deron Williams dons the gear of the black knight and takes on King Arthur in a sword fight. Williams is primarily going to be guarded by Kobe Bryant and Trevor Ariza in this series so he'll have to work harder than he'd like to. Fisher is no longer THAT effective of a player but if he can knock down open shots, he'll serve his role nicely.
Edge: Utah

Shooting Guard - Kobe Bryant vs. Ronnie Brewer
Remember what I just said about the point guard match-up? Reverse that. This is a huge mismatch in the favor of the Lakers, obviously. But Ronnie Brewer is athletic enough to make Kobe work for points if he studies the tendencies and attempts to be the Doug Christie to Kobe's Kobe. What Brewer has to do in return is make Kobe pay for doubling other players and get out in transition for some cheap baskets. Brewer needs to get four or five dunks each game to help give the Jazz a winning chance in this series.
Edge: Lakers

Small Forward - Trevor Ariza vs. C.J. Miles
This is an interesting match-up too because Ariza will probably draw Deron Williams in defensive assignments and C.J. Miles seems to start the game, play 15 minutes and then never be seen from again. Ariza's defense and ability to be an athlete in the open floor can be a series changer that Utah doesn't want to deal with. Miles in turn will have to make his limited minutes on the floor as effective and efficient as possible. If Miles walks away with eight points each night, Utah's in good shape.
Edge: Lakers

Power Forward - Pau Gasol vs. Carlos Boozer
While this looks like a pretty even match-up, I suspect that it's far more one-sided than we initially assume. Pau Gasol is the best power forward in the playoffs this year because of the way he's adapted to the triangle offense. He's a force around the basket on offense and will have the quietest 24 and 12 we've ever seen in the post-season. Boozer on the other hand still doesn't look healthy and will probably not be as effective as Utah needs. He HAS to pull down double digit rebounds and score in the 20s for Utah to win this series. And that's not going to happen.  
Edge: Lakers

Center - Andrew Bynum vs. Mehmet Okur
I wonder just how much Bynum will play and how effective he'll be with this match-up. With Okur hanging around the perimeter, Bynum will have to guard Boozer or Millsap inside and they're too quick for him. For Okur, he has to be a clutch shooter from outside and find a way to get open. He's great at slipping out of screens to find an open spot on the perimeter and will need to stretch the defense. Whenever he gets Bynum switched to him, he has to take him away from the basket so the rest of the team has more room to operate inside.
Edge: Utah

Bench - Odom/Farmar/Vujacic/Powell vs. Kirilenko/Millsap/Korver/Knight
For my money, these are the two deepest teams in the league with the two best benches. The key match-up here will be Lamar Odom's effectiveness against Andrei Kirilenko's effectiveness. Whoever outplays whom will probably end up winning the series for his team with the emphasis shot towards AK. He has to be his old, stat sheet filling self from five years ago to justify his minutes on the court. And if he gets to guard Kobe during fourth quarter stretches, he'll have to bother Kobe's shot and get the ball out of his hands. Also, Kyle Korver needs to outshoot Sasha Vujacic in this series.
Edge: Lakers

Coaching - Phil Jackson vs. Jerry Sloan
Watching these two guys go head to head in coaching is like watching Bobby Fisher and Boris Spassky throw down on a chess board. There is literally no advantage on either side since these guys are two of the greatest coaches of all time. What will be interesting to watch is how much Phil trusts Jordan Farmar with the ball and how much rest Sloan gives Deron Williams throughout the series. I can't imagine we see many consecutive minutes of Brevin Knight battling Jordan Farmar.
Edge: Even

X-Factor - Lamar Odom vs. Andrei Kirilenko
Again, I think matching up against Utah, the Lakers are putting their best five on the floor with Fisher, Kobe, Ariza, Odom, and Gasol so that they can maintain agility and versatility to battle the Jazz with Okur knocking down shots. So Odom's play will be key in keeping the ball moving and clearing the defensive glass. Kirilenko doesn't have to replicate those responsibilities for Utah but he does have to play stellar defense and be an athlete in the open court. If he isn't putting up lines of 8 points, 7 rebounds, four assists, 3 steals, and two blocks then the Jazz will have a hard time with him on the court.

Prediction - Lakers in 6 Games.
With the Jazz finishing the season by playing such terrible basketball, I just find it hard for them to win four games in this series. I think that most of the games will be hard fought but Utah has been horrendous on the road this year and incapable of staying in games away from SLC. There can be no mistakes against this Lakers team.

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