| 17 April 2009
Brother, can you spare a dime? Point guard play is a premium in this series.
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How Did The Nuggets Get Here?
Prior to the season many believed (myself included) that the Nuggets would be on the outside looking in when they playoffs started. They were a good team, but they just weren't good enough to be taken seriously in a loaded Western Conference. That all changed less than a week into the season when they traded Allen Iverson to Detroit in exchange for Chauncey Billups. The hometown hero came back to Denver and brought with him a winning attitude and steadying hand. Carmelo Anthony started playing team-ball while continuing to put up stats. J.R. Smith and Nene had the best seasons in their young careers. The Nuggets ended up with a franchise best (since joining the NBA) 54 wins and a 33-8 record at home. Casual fans may be aware of how good this team has been on offense since the arrival of Billups, but they've also been sneaky-good on defense. They're only allowing 106.8 points per 100 posessions which is good enough for eighth in the league. This team is not an easy out especially with home court and their veteran leadership.
How Did The Hornets Get Here?
It's pretty easy to just say that Chris Paul is the only reason that the Hornets are in the playoffs. What? Did you expect more of a breakdown than that? Fine. Paul has played the point guard position this season better than anyone before him. That may come off as hyperbole, but it's true. He is putting up Magic-in-his-prime numbers this season, and he doesn't have James Worthy, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar or any other Hall of Fame players to take the pressure off him. That being said, there are a few guys on this team that compliment Paul's game. David West has improved every season in his sort career and runs the pick and roll perfectly with Paul. His scoring has steadily improved, but his greatest attribute is his free throw shooting. He shoots 88% from the line which is excellent considering he is a 6'9" power forward. Tyson Chandler isn't a great player, but he was sorely missed when New Orleans tried to trade him to Oklahoma City. Chandler is athletic and can finish around the rim, so the Hornets lucked out when he failed his physical with OKC and was sent back to NOLA. But every other player on this squad would be a shell of himself if not for the presence of Chris Paul. So how did the Hornets get here? Short answer: Chris Paul.
Match-Up History
05/06: Denver 2-1 regular season
06/07: Tied 2-2 regular season
07/08: New Orleans 2-1 regular season
08:09: Tied 2-2 regular season
Match-ups by position
Point Guard - Chauncey Billups vs. Chris Paul
This is the kind of positional match-up that is worth whatever price you have to pay. Billups brings a veteran edge, toughness and been-there-done-that attitude to the table. Paul is just flat-out the best point guard in the league. It is going to be an absolute treat to watch this one go done. The best part of this match-up: both guys absolutely hate to lose and will do whatever it takes to will their team to victory. This may be one of the top ten individual match-ups we have ever seen in the playoffs. Billups would probably have the edge against just about any other team but not against Paul.
Edge: New Orleans
Shooting Guard - Dahntay Jones vs. Rasual Butler
No offense to Dahntay Jones, but why is he even in the league let alone starting for a fifty-win team? I know that it is mostly to use J.R. Smith as a weapon off the bench, but who are the Nuggets trying to fool? Jones only played eighteen minutes per game this season. Butler meanwhile has quietly put together a very strong season after being non-existent last year. He was especially good after the All-Star break averaging 13.6 points and hitting nearly 2 three-pointers per contest. The real match-up will be Butler against Smith, but I have to honor the starting line-ups.
Edge: Hornets
Small Forward - Carmelo Anthony vs. Peja Stojakovic
At a glance it would seem that Carmelo is having a down year. His points, rebounds and steals are down from last season, and he is shooting worse from the field this season compared to last year. But consider also he has played fewer minutes and taking fewer shots. He is hitting more threes and shooting a better percentage. His per-minute stats are actually the best of his career. Apparently all he needed was top-notch point guard. On the other side of the coin, Peja has become irrelevant. He is shooting under 40% from the field and under 38% from three for the first time since his rookie season, and he has gotten worse as the season has progressed. He's also still an atrocious defender.
Edge: Denver
Power Forward - Kenyon Martin vs. David West
This may be the match-up that decides this series. On paper and statisticly West is the better player, but Martin does little things that can disrupt a player like West. Martin is an above-average defender especially on the help side. If Martin can hold West under his season averages and make-up about 70% of West's production, the Nuggets will be in a great position to win. If West puts up his averages from the season, the Hornets are moving on to the next round.
Edge: New Orleans
Center - Nene Hilario vs. Tyson Chandler
No two players benefited more from the play of their point guards than these two. Chandler scores about two-thirds of his points off of lobs from Paul. Nene seems to be constanly on his way to the basket after a feed from Billups. The amazing thing about these guys is one is a very good defensive player and the other isn't, but it is the complete opposite of what you're told. Hilario is a solid defender that moves his feet, beats guys to the spot and plays great on-ball defense, but he doesn't rack up a bunch of blocks and gets overlooked. Chandler gets overpowered in the post, is constantly behind his man and worries solely about help-D, but he blocks shots into the stands and is known as a stopper. Funny how the world works.
Edge: Denver
Bench - Smith/Kleiza/Andersen vs. Posey/Armstrong
The Nuggets obviously have the better bench in this match-up. Smith really shouldn't be listed as a starter, but he comes off the bench and technically is a bench player. Kleiza is a solid bench player that contributes even in limited minutes. He averaged 10 points, 4 rebounds and a little over 1 three-pointer made in 22 minutes per game. The big contributor and potential breakout player in this series could be Chris Andersen. Andersen has been a rebounding and shot blocking machine. The Hornets have veterans on their bench, but they can't match Denver's bench production.
Edge: Denver
Coach - George Karl vs.Byron Scott
Karl has not had a lot of success when it comes winning in the playoffs. He holds a 62-83 career coaching record in the playoffs and a 3-16 record with Denver. In his defense, he doesn't often have the best team. This may be the exception since the Nuggets have the second best record in the West. Scott has been more successful in his playoff career with two trips to the Finals back in 2001-02 and 2002-03. Neither have been all that impressive in recent years, but Scott has done better in the playoffs when he has gotten there.
Edge: New Orleans
X-Factor - Road Wins
These teams have played very evenly over the past four years, so this series may come done to whichever is the first to win on the road. Denver has put together one of its better road records of the past few seasons. New Orleans has also established an above-average road record this season. The first team to win on the road in this series will win it.
Prediction - Hornets in Six
Ultimately the Hornets have not only the best player in the series but one of the top five players in the league, and you don't bet against a player as good as Paul when two teams are evenly matched.
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