| 16 April 2009
Youth versus youth in the All-Athletic series
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How Did the Magic Get Here?
The Orlando Magic took over their division lead on November 18 with a win over the Toronto Raptors, and they haven't looked back since. At that point they were 8-3, and they rode the stellar play of their starting five to a 36-10 record through the beginning of February. They looked to be invincible. Dwight Howard was wreaking havoc and an unstoppable force within five feet of the basket. Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis created match-up problems with their speed and outside shooting. The Magic looked to be the team to beat in the East until starting point guard Jameer Nelson tore his right labrum. Nelson would miss the rest of the season, and it appeared to be the end of their title run. They went 3-4 in their next seven games and looked very lost without a solid point guard (no offense to Anthony Johnson). Recognizing their need at the point, they obtained Rafer Alston from the Houston Rockets at the trade deadline. He stabilized the position, and the Magic went 16-4 in their next twenty games to all but secure the Southeast. A three-game losing streak at the end of the season was the only thing that kept them from winning 60 games for only the second time in the history of the franchise. The last time they did that they made it to the Eastern Conference Finals on the backs of Shaquille O'Neal, Penny Hardaway and Nick Anderson. You won't hear anyone on the Magic complaining about 59 wins, the number one rated defense in the league and the best young center in the game. This team is confident heading into the playoffs.
How Did the 76ers Get Here?
The Philadelphia 76ers had high hopes entering this season. They were a surprising playoff team that gave Detroit a hard-fought series the previous season. They had just lured Elton Brand away from the Clippers and locked up their exciting leading scorer/best defender from the previous season (Andre Iguodala). They were the sexy pick by many experts to disturb the balance of power in the East. Then they started playing games. Brand didn't mesh with what made the Sixers successful the previous season. They couldn't get out and run and spread the floor with all their weapons. The slashers like Iguodala and Lou Williams became ineffective because of the team's need to feed Brand in the post. The only person that seemed to benefit from the arrival of Brand was Thaddeus Young who hit 49 three-pointers in the first seventeen games of the season. The Sixers got off to a 9-14 start, and Maurice Cheeks was shown the door as a result and replaced by Tony DiLeo. Brand got injured around the same time, and the Sixers got their groove back. They put together a 10-5 January that pushed them back into the playoff hunt. No team (other than the Pistons) backed their way into the playoffs quite like the Sixers though with a 3-6 April, but their 41-41 record (along with a tiebreaker against the Bulls) secured the sixth seed.
Match-Up History
06/07: Orlando 2-1 Regular season (Sixers coached by Maurice Cheeks, Magic coached by Brian Hill)
07/08: Orlando 3-1 Regular season (Sixers coached by Maurice Cheeks)
08/09: Orlando 3-0 Regular season
Notes: The Sixers' last win in Orlando November 3, 2006. The Magic are 7-2 at home against Philadelphia since drafting Dwight Howard. Orlando had a +5.7 scoring margin against Philadelphia this season.
Match-Ups by Position
Point Guard - Rafer Alston vs. Andre Miller
This is technically the old-man match-up of the game. Both guys are over the age of 32, and they both have nine seasons of NBA experience under their belts. So when it comes to veteran experience the point guard match-up has it in spades. Neither guy will blow by the other, but they both have enough savvy to get to the rim when it's needed. Alston will try to stretch the defense with his outside shooting and will be able to hold his own defensively against a change-of-pace guy like Williams. Miller is a much more efficient scorer and a better distributor than Alston especially when he isn't limited to passing into the post.
Edge: Philadelphia
Shooting Guard - Courtney Lee vs. Willie Green
It isn't often that a rookie guard in his first playoff series would hold such a significant advantage over his sixth-year counterpart, but that is the situation we have at the off-guard in this series. That isn't to say that Courtney Lee is a world-beater. He has shown significant improvement throughout the course of the season and really blossomed in the starting role. Nor am I saying Green is a terrible player. He puts up very good stats in limited minutes and has the potential to be a double-digit scorer on any night. He just doesn't bring the outside shooting that Lee does, and his starting job has everything to do with Lou Williams being so dangerous off the bench.
Edge: Orlando
Small Forward - Hedo Turkoglu vs. Andre Iguodala
Now the match-ups start to get interesting. Hedo won Most Improved Player with statistical drops across the board. His points, assists and rebounds per game dropped despite similar minutes. He also only shot 41.3% from the field and 35.6% from three, both below his career averages of 42.8% and 38.5% respectively. Iguodala is without question the best player on the Sixers healthy or not (sorry Elton). He does just about everything for this team. He averaged 18.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.6 steals and played in every game for the Sixers. And Iguodala has only gotten better as the season has progressed. He bumped his scoring up to 21 points per game over the last 24 games and kept his assists and rebounds about the same during that stretch. He has the advantage, but Hedo could make it a push if he puts up stats similar to what he did in the playoffs last year (17.5, 6.4, and 5.5).
Edge: Philadelphia
Power Forward - Rashard Lewis vs. Thaddeus Young
When it comes to unconventional power forwards, these two teams take the cake. Many scoffed at the contract Lewis was given two summers ago, but since coming over to the Magic he has averaged 18 points on 45% from the field, 40% from three and 83% from the line. He has caused match-up problems galore with his speed and ability to stretch the defense. Young may be just the guy to match him. Young saw his scoring just about double this season while playing thirteen more minutes per game. He has the athleticism to stay with Lewis and the length to bother his shot. Basically we're going to be treated to four small forwards on the court at the beginning of each, and three of them are super-athletic.
Edge: Orlando
Center - Dwight Howard vs. Samuel Dalembert
This one appears to be a clear-cut winner for Orlando on paper. Howard is the better player and has dominated all season. He will be on the All-NBA first team, win the Defensive Player of the Year, finish in the top five in MVP voting and become one of the faces of the NBA for the next 10 seasons. Dalembert was cut from Team Canada, but he has held his own in head-to-head match-ups this season. Howard still managed 15.7, 10 boards and 2.7 blocks, but that is a pretty significant drop from the 20.6, 13.8 and 2.9 he averaged on the season. If the Dalembert can find a way to get those rebound numbers down even further, this could be a longer series than we think. I just wouldn't bet on it.
Edge: Orlando
Bench - Redick/Pietrus/Gortat/Battie vs. Williams/Speights/Evans
Lou Williams may single-handedly give the edge to Philadelphia on this one. He is so explosive off the bench and is instant offense. Marreese Speights is also a player to watch. He hasn't played a lot of minutes in his rookie season, but when he is in the game he grabs rebounds, scores points and blocks shots. Reggie Evans will basically be there to body Dwight Howard and rack up six fouls. The Magic bench isn't too impressive when it comes to big names and stud individual players, but they do have the appropriate role players just like championship teams of the past. J.J. Redick is the sharp-shooter. Mickael Pietrus is t
he perimeter defender. Marcin Gortat and Tony Battie are the bigs to offset bigger line-ups the Sixers might show.
Edge: Philadelphia
Coaching - Stan Van Gundy vs. Tony DiLeo
I was really impressed what DiLeo. Not many interim head coaches can push a team to the playoffs, but he was able to pull it off. It just so happened to coincide with Brand's injury, but he still was able to bring this club together. That being said Van Gundy is a much better coach, and he holds a significant edge over DiLeo.
Edge: Orlando
X-Factor - Free Throw Shooting
To say that these teams are bad from the charity stripe might be the biggest understatement of all time. Philadelphia is ranked twenty-fifth in the league shooting 74.5% from the line this season. Orlando shot a league-worst 71.5% from the line. Much of that has to do with Dwight Howard's 59.4%, but he has twice as many attempts per game as anyone else on the team. The Sixers have only one player shooting over 80% (Andre Miller) and the rest of their top seven all shoot in between 72% and 79%. Whichever team can top 75% from the line in more games could decide the series.
Prediction - Magic in Five
The Magic still are the better team overall, but the 76ers may string together a few exciting games in Philadelphia. Ultimately the Magic are a great defensive team that can disrupt the Sixers, and they're a good enough road team to win a game in Philly (which will be all they need to secure the series).
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