| 16 April 2009
var iamInit = function() {try{initIamServingHandler(420,286,879646,"http://cdn.pis.picapp.com/IamProd/Resources/Css/css2.css")}catch(ex){}}()How the Hawks Got Here
The Hawks (47-35) were actually one of the most consistent teams in the NBA this season. They never really went on a huge winning streak, but at the same time, they never really went on a long losing streak either. Joe Johnson, whom I refer to as a poor man's Dwyane Wade, had a solid season averaging 22 points, 6 assists, and 4 rebounds a game for the Hawks. Atlanta, when you look at the team in depth, really has a talented young roster with a lot of playoff experience. Joe Johnson has been in the playoffs several times along with Bibby and almost the exact same Hawks team last year took Boston to 7 games. Mike Bibby has been a steady influence distributing the ball and running the offense while Josh Smith (though a somewhat disappointing year) is still a force in the paint. For a younger team, they are very good at passing the ball averaging about 20 assists per contest. In addition, they aren't a bad defensive team giving up only 96 points a game, which is good for 10th in the league. Basically, Atlanta is a good team; simple as that. Good, not great...but better than Miami.
How the Heat Got Here
The Heat (43-39) can thank Dwyane Wade for getting them into the playoffs. Wade had an MVP time season averaging 30 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists per game and leading the Heat in almost every other statistical category. The next closest player in scoring was Michael Beasley who averaged about 14 a game so....yeah....Dwyane Wade is pretty good; and the Heat will obviously live and die with him. First year coach Erik Spoelstra has done a surprisingly good job unifying the team and motivating them to play on a nightly basis. Of course, when you have Dwyane Wade on your team, this makes things much easier. Getting a 5th seed in the East was also a surprise to many experts and fans with the loss of several players in the off-season and question marks about how Wade would return (which are now moot). Mario Chalmers and Daequan Cook have been amazingly consistent for the Heat despite their youth, while Beasley is quietly finding his groove at the NBA level. However, take Dwyane Wade off this team and the Heat would struggle to win 25 games.
Match-Up History
06/07: Miami 4-0 in regular season (Pat Riley coached the Heat)
07/08: Atlanta 3-1 in regular season (Pat Riley coached the Heat)
08/09: Atlanta 3-1 in regular season
Match-Ups By Position
Point Guard -- Mike Bibby vs. Mario Chalmers
Chalmers has certainly played well this year, and has been a pleasant surprise for Miami, but Bibby has years of playoff experience under his belt and still has a lot left in the tank.
Edge: Atlanta.
Shooting Guard -- Joe Johnson vs. Dwyane Wade
This one is certainly an intriguing match-up with two superstars at the helm, however, Wade is playing at a level that Johnson isn't yet.
Edge: Miami.
Small Forward -- Marvin Williams vs. Jamario Moon
Moon has been a spark plug for Miami, but Marvin Williams is coming into his own as a player and has been key in Atlanta's success this season. Williams should be able to eclipse Moon (I'm ashamed of that sentence).
Edge: Atlanta.
Power Forward -- Josh Smith vs. Udonis Haslem
Josh Smith, though a somewhat disappointing season, is an animal. Haslem is a good defender but there aren't many people that can stop Josh Smith, and Haslem certainly isn't one of them.
Edge: Atlanta.
Center -- Al Horford vs. Jermaine O'Neal
I'm not sure there is an edge here. Maybe O'Neal for experience, maybe Horford for youth. Really though, it's not this match-up that is going to decide the series so why bother?
Edge: Wash.
Bench -- Pachulia/Murray/Evans/Law vs. Beasley/Cook/Moon/Jones
Again, it's the starters that are going to decide who wins this series, and I think Atlanta's starters>Miami's starters.
Edge: Wash.
Coach -- Mike Woodson vs. Erik Spoelstra
Woodson has (some) playoff experience, Spoelstra looks like he's 22. How's that for analyzing?
Edge: Atlanta.
X-Factor -- Mario Chalmers & Daequan Cook
Though one is a rookie, the other has 1 year experience, and both haven't played in the playoffs they have really carried a big load on the defensive end and scoring to compliment Dwyane Wade. If one or both can put together a string of good games, look for this series to go 7 games.
Prediction: Atlanta in 6
Wade will have monstrous games, but Atlanta is too balanced of a team for Miami. I see Atlanta closing this out in 6 games or less.
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