| 14 April 2009
It is a sad time in the basketball world. When something is taken away from us too soon, it can be extremely emotional. I also hate being the bearer of bad news. That is why it is so hard to write this article, but I'm going to push my way through it as a coping mechanism. It comes with great sorrow that I announce the demise of the San Antonio Spurs as perennial title contenders.
I don't even know what to say at a moment like this. I hope the fans of the Spurs realize that I can feel their pain. It was a good run. There were a lot of great times and a few heartbreaking ones too. They were able to win four championships in the Tim Duncan era. They were a model or consistency on and off the court. They played defense the right way and played offense about as efficiently as any team.
Unfortunately the injury of Manu Ginobili has dashed any hope for winning the title this season. And I am voicing the opinion of many that this may have been the final year that San Antonio could take home the title. Sure they still have Duncan, Tony Parker, and Gregg Popovich leading the charge. They may even make one last push for a deep run in the playoffs, but the Spurs just aren't the same team without Ginobili on the court.
The Spurs are 21-16 without Ginobili which doesn't seem like a bad record without one of their top players. They are only 6-8 against Western Conference playoff teams without Manu in the line-up. They are 1-3 against the Portland Trail Blazers without Ginobili this season. This is important because the Spurs will face the Blazers in the first round if the standings stay the same. The Blazers know how to beat the Spurs with Ginobili out and would have home-court advantage if they remained tied.
Many will point to what Roger Mason Jr. has been able to do in Manu's absence this season. He has been a great addition, but he just can't match Ginobili's all-around play. Manu is a better defender than Mason. He puts the opposing team in foul trouble with his ability to get to the basket and create contact. He is also a go-to-guy in crunch time, and the Spurs will especially miss him at the end of games.
Now some people will naysay my opinion. I'm well aware that Ginobili will be back and healthy next season. I know that Tony Parker is a top-ten point guard (probably more like top-five). Anyone that knows me is keenly aware of my undying love of all things Tim Duncan. The Spurs will be a top team in the West next year and even end up with a high seed. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they did, but it also wouldn't surprise me if they were bounced in the first or second round.
Their core players aren't getting any younger and have a lot of games under their collective belts. This is the blessing and the curse of making a championship push every season. Tim Duncan has played in 898 games in the regular season which is a lot for any player. He has also played an additional 155 games in the playoffs. That is an additional two seasons worth of games against stiffer competition and more physical play. That can take a toll on a player even as good as Duncan.
Ginobili may not have the same number of NBA minutes, but he will turn 32 this summer and has been playing in international leagues since 1995. He has also logged a lot of minutes playing for the Argentina national team during summers for the past ten years. His odometer reads very similar to Duncan's when you take all of his extra playing time outside of the NBA into consideration. This, along with his somewhat reckless style of play, is probably the reason we are seeing him break down more often.
I also don't want to rain on the parade of any Spurs' fans out there. I think this is one of the best franchises of the last twenty years. You are the example of how a small-market team can succeed in this and any league. I just see the writing on the wall with the next two to three years for this team.
In fact I'll even venture a guess as to how their situation will play out. Their win total will drop a game or two next season and another two to three games the season after that. They'll go from a third or fourth seed to a sixth or seventh seed. They'll be forced to play on the road in the playoffs over the next few seasons which will affect their ability to make it to the Finals.
Manu Ginobili is a free agent in the vaunted summer of 2010, and he should cash in either with the Spurs or a team looking for his playmaking ability. Signing Ginobili will make it harder for San Antonio to re-sign Tony Parker the following year. Parker will bolt and go to a team desperate for point guard play and willing to pay for it. The last feel-good season will be 2011-12 when Duncan goes on his farewell tour and retires at the end of the season. They'll be back in the lottery, land another talented player and probably be back in contention by 2015 because Pop will stay around to build another top-notch franchise.
It could obviously play out differently. I've learned time and time again to not bet against the Spurs. Whenever I pick against them (and against my better judgment), those are the times that they always seem to win. At least Spurs' fans can take solace in the fact that I'm usually wrong about how they'll finish.
So here's to hoping that I'm wrong. Here's to the Spurs landing a big-name free agent that wants to play with Duncan and Parker in the next few seasons. Maybe that will reinvigorate Duncan and Parker and keep them in San Antonio past their existing contracts. Better yet, here's to the Spurs staying healthy and making one last run in the next two seasons and bringing another championship to San Antonio before Tim Duncan rides off into the sunset of his career.
I know Spurs' fans are rooting for that scenario, and I'll be rooting for it too despite what they may think. I've never wanted to be wrong more about anything I've ever typed up, and maybe the Spurs can add this article to another long list of times they've made someone look foolish for doubting them.
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