| 15 April 2009
After 81 regular season games, I've realized that the playoff seeding in the Western Conference won't really be determined until the very last game on the very last night of the season. Going into tonight every basketball fan should know every potential scenario that could affect where each team would be opening up the playoffs and against whom they would be playing. Apparently a college degree is necessary in order to really figure out all the different permutations, so I'm taking one for the team and figuring them out for you.
As a quick aside, I really only initially became interested in all the potential playoff seeding because I wanted to see where the Kings could be drafting using the first round pick they acquired from Houston in the Ron Artest trade. For anyone interested, the best case scenario for that pick is twenty-third overall.
Some may be asking why I'm not going over the Eastern Conference playoff picture, and my only answer is 'Who cares?' The seeding in the East is all but decided. Chicago can't overtake Miami because Miami holds the tiebreaker. Philadelphia holds the tiebreaker over Detroit, so they won't flip flop positions. Philadelphia probably won't beat the Cavs in Cleveland tonight, and the Bulls probably won't lose to the Raptors in Chicago. So basically what you see right now in the East is what you'll get in round one.
However there are three games in the Western Conference tonight that could completely change the first round match-ups. Six of the eight playoff teams can fall or climb depending on the result of three games tonight. The only teams not affected by tonight's games are the Lakers (who secured the top spot some time in August) and the Jazz (who locked up the eighth seed with a loss last night).
Before we go any further let's break down how all the potential tiebreakers work when it comes to seeding in the playoffs:
Two-Way Tiebreakers
1. Head-to-head record.
2. Better winning percentage within own division (only if tied teams are in the same division). This is the reason Denver has clinched their division and cannot be passed by Portland even if the Blazers beat them tonight.
3. Better winning percentage against teams in own conference.
4. Better winning percentage against playoff opponents in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff spot). This may actually be an even better indicator than the winning percentage against the entire conference because of the unbalanced schedules.
5. Better winning percentage against playoff opponents in opposite conference. This one I don't understand. Why not go with record against the entire opposing conference? Better yet, why not just look right past this tiebreaker and not include it at all?
6. Better point differential. I especially like this particular tiebreaker. It may lead to more blowouts if it was more important in the tiebreaker department, but I like it when teams don't take their foot off the gas. It also rewards complete teams.
Three-Way Tiebreakers
1. Division champions must be determined first if applicable.
2. Best winning percentage in all games among the tied teams.
3. Best winning percentage against teams in own division (only if teams are in the same division).
4. Best winning percentage against teams in own conference.
5. Best winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference.
6. Best point differential. Amazingly the NBA overlooks the winning percentage against the opposing conference playoff teams when it comes to three-way tiebreakers. Maybe they do that because in the words of Pepper Brooks "Usually you pay double for that kind of action."
The games in question are New Orleans at San Antonio, Houston at Dallas and Denver at Portland. Two of the games (Rockets/Mavs & Nuggets/Blazers) will be shown on ESPN, so even non-League Pass owners will have a chance to see the playoff picture come into focus.
So now that we've cleared up all the minutiae, let's examine how these games will change the playoff picture:
Houston/Dallas, New Orleans and Denver win - This is the only scenario that would not change the existing seeding at all. Denver would stay in second, Houston in third, Portland in fourth, San Antonio in fifth, New Orleans in sixth and Dallas in seventh. Houston wouldn't have to win if Portland and San Antonio lose because they still hold the tiebreaker over both teams.
Houston, New Orleans and Portland win - Houston would take over the second seed because they went 3-1 against Denver this season and hold the tiebreaker. Denver would fall to third but stay ahead of Portland because of their better division record than the Blazers this season. Portland would stay in fourth, and San Antonio would stay in fifth. New Orleans would secure the sixth seed, and Dallas would remain in seventh.
Houston, San Antonio and Denver win - Denver and Houston would stay in the second and third seed respectively. San Antonio would move up to fourth. Portland would fall to the fifth seed. New Orleans and Dallas would stay in sixth and seventh respectively because New Orleans holds the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record against the Mavericks this season.
Dallas, San Antonio and Denver win - Denver remains the second seed. San Antonio would move up to third because of they'd have a better division record than Houston, and the Rockets and Blazers would both fall one spot to fourth and fifth. Dallas would move up to sixth, and New Orleans would fall to seventh.
Dallas, New Orleans and Portland win - Denver remains the second seed. Portland moves up to third and Houston falls to fourth. San Antonio remains in fifth because the Rockets would be 14-13 against playoff teams in the West, and the Spurs would be 11-14. (As a side note, would it bother anyone else if the Rockets lost home court advantage in the first round because the Spurs had a better conference record while playing an easier conference schedule? Just asking.) The sixth and seventh seeds would remain the same (New Orleans and Dallas).
Houston, San Antonio and Portland win - This scenario is incredibly complicated because it would create a four-way tie. First we'll go over the easy tiebreaker at the bottom of the playoff standings. New Orleans and Dallas would stay in sixth and seventh. Now the fun part. Denver holds the tiebreaker over Portland because they're the division winner, and they hold the tiebreaker over San Antonio because they went 2-1 against the Spurs. Houston holds the tiebreaker over Denver and San Antonio because of head-to-head records. Portland went 3-1 against the Spurs, so they hold the tiebreaker over San Antonio. So the seeding (unless I've completely screwed it up) should be Houston in second, Denver in third, Portland in fourth and San Antonio in fifth.
So there you have it. If Houston loses, Denver might decide to rest their players. If Dallas and New Orleans pull off wins, Portland will be playing balls to the wall to move up to the third seed. If Dallas wins, San Antonio will do what they can to beat New Orleans and hope Denver helps them out.
That's the end of our lesson today. Midterms will be scheduled for the end of the week.
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