| 23 January 2009
(Editor's Note: Cory Elfrink was the original writer for Talkhoops.net when I started this site. He now does work for Owner's Edge, Rototimes, Fanball, and more. He had a running piece for us called Trade That Should Happen in which he attempted to fix teams who needed some roster help. We're bringing it back over the next five weeks as we gear up for the NBA Trade Deadline. Here is his first entry with a Bulls-Kings swap idea. Enjoy)
Improving your roster mid-season in the NBA is not reserved only for those teams that are currently near the top of the standings. At this point last season, the Heat, Hawks, Suns, and Mavericks all possessed records good enough for the playoffs, but not good enough for a home series. Each of the teams made headline-grabbing transactions prior to the deadline in hopes of jolting their teams' conference rankings.
This season also has a number of teams possessing trade pieces that are in similar circumstances. More specifically, the Utah Jazz and Milwaukee Bucks both currently hold the No. 8 seeds in their respective conferences, but both are just slightly ahead of the ninth ranked Dallas Mavericks and New Jersey Nets. Both the Bucks and Jazz are in prime positions to swing deals that will improve their rosters and thus their standing.
The State of the Jazz
Entering the season, the Utah Jazz were one of the favorites to challenge for the Western Conference crown. However, an injury to their All-Star power forward, Carlos Boozer, has allowed their record to slip to 25-18, currently third in the Northwest Division. Boozer's absence has allowed Paul Millsap to play big-time minutes and thrive as his replacement. In 18 starts this season, the 23-year-old has averaged 18 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and respectable defensive stats while shooting just a notch under 57 percent from the field.
While Millsap has emerged, Andrei Kirilenko, a former All-Star power forward, remains mostly under-utilized in Utah. His limited role is somewhat of a surprise as he has three seasons (including the current campaign) and nearly $50 million left on his deal. Reserve duty is a small role for someone getting paid so much.
Utah has mostly used Kirilenko at small forward since acquiring Boozer in 2004, but his best season came prior to that arrival, when AK-47 was a power forward. The Russian's production also soared in the 2005-06 season when Boozer spent most of the season on injured reserve. Kirilenko, 28 in February, has again filled in as the starting power forward on six occasions for the Jazz this season when neither Boozer nor Millsap were available. In those games he has averaged an impressive stat line - 15.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.5 steals, and 2.0 blocks per game.
Boozer is expected back from his knee surgery at some point in February. Once he returns, he will reclaim his starting position and both Millsap and Kirilenko will be back where they were at the start of the season - the bench.
Boozer may not be back very long though. His contract expires at the end of this season, and he will arguably be the hottest free agent on the market this offseason. The Jazz seem to be ready to name Millsap his heir apparent.
Clearly the power forward slot in Utah has been in good hands. Deron Williams and Mehmet Okur also give the Jazz above average production out of their point guard and center positions. Shooting guard Ronnie Brewer has provided the type of two-way play that coach Jerry Sloan loves. Small forward is the only position that has never been totally settled in Salt Lake City.
If the Jazz could find a team that believes in Kirilenko and can swallow his hefty contract, it seems only natural that they would seek a true starting small forward in return.
The State of the Bucks
Coach Scott Skiles has effectively turned around a Bucks team that won just 26 games last season. The biggest change between last season's disaster and this season's competitors is the focus on defense. What makes this somewhat incredible is that Skiles is forced to start the offensive-minded Michael Redd and Richard Jefferson, along with a 6'8" rookie (Luc Richard Mbah a Moute) at power forward.
As previously mentioned, the Bucks are currently eighth in the Eastern Conference and they have made public their desire to upgrade at power forward. The team's obvious trade pieces are the underused Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villanueva, but they might shop the big contracts of Redd and Jefferson as well. Some scouts have argued that the high-priced wingmen limit each other's production.
There is little doubt that Skiles would like a defensive mastermind in return if the Bucks are able to swing a trade.
The Trade That Should Happen
The Jazz and Bucks are battling for the playoffs, and they both hold significant assets that fill each other's biggest needs.
Utah receives Richard Jefferson
Milwaukee receives Andrei Kirilenko
The trade is made more plausible because both of these forwards hold contracts that expire at the end of the 2011 season. Neither would be confused for a bargain and Kirilenko's deal totals about $7 million more over the course of his deal.
Currently, these potential stars are fitting in awkwardly with their teams. Kirilenko has proven that he can be a quality starting power forward, but currently comes off the bench and plays most of his minutes out of position. Jefferson is an offensive minded player playing for a defensive minded coach. The Bucks have too many of these types and have a need at power forward.
At small forward, Skiles could choose to go with Villanueva when in need of scoring or Mbah a Moute for defense. Both have handled the power forward slot this season next to Jefferson, but they are better suited for the three position. Either way, the Bucks get their upgrade at power forward without giving up something they cannot replace.
Meanwhile, the Jazz find a way to move Kirilenko's unattractive contract while getting a big upgrade at small forward. It may be a big enough upgrade to catch the Nuggets at the top of the division. Utah is just three games behind, and winning the division would give them home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The proposed trade would also help the Jazz head-to-head with the Nuggets. Jefferson could help neutralize Carmelo Anthony by making him work more on defense.
Will It Happen?
Kirilenko is currently dealing with an ankle injury and recently received a second cortisone shot that caused him to miss Wednesday's game. Obviously, a player has to pass a physical for any trade to be complete. If AK-47's ankle appears to have the potential to linger, then he won't be going anywhere.
The Bucks are more likely to make a move as they have a number of available assets and have made their desire for a power forward public. Their current roster simply does not reflect the mentality of their coach, yet they have managed a respectable record to date. The Draft Lottery means nothing to Skiles, and he will have his team playing for the playoffs for all 82 games.
The Jazz have played better than expected in the absence of Carlos Boozer. They could just sit back and hope his return provides the jolt they need to get back to the top of their division. However, Millsap's emergence gives them even more abundance at an already well-fortified position. C.J. Miles has done an ok job while starting at small forward, but it's obvious that the team could use an upgrade. Adding a natural small forward like Jefferson would immediately get Utah back into the "Who's the best in the West" talks.
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