| 16 January 2009
(Editor's Note: Cory Elfrink was the original writer for Talkhoops.net when I started this site. He now does work for Owner's Edge, Rototimes, Fanball, and more. He had a running piece for us called Trade That Should Happen in which he attempted to fix teams who needed some roster help. We're bringing it back over the next six weeks as we gear up for the NBA Trade Deadline. Enjoy)
Entering the trade season, multiple teams have clearly established themselves as buyers or sellers. Teams such as the Kings, just one of seven teams with 11 wins or less, are in clear position to expedite their rebuilding process. The veterans on these rosters will be some of the more sought after trade targets of teams in contention.
Other squads like the Bulls still have legitimate shots at making the playoffs. However, most of these teams are missing certain pieces that they need to get them into the postseason. The Bulls have perhaps as many trade pieces as any team out there, and the lack of defined roles and the talented team's losing record is pressuring GM John Paxson to make some changes prior to the February 19 deadline.
SACRAMENTO
At nine wins and 30 losses, the Sacramento Kings don't have much going for them regarding the immediate future. Suffice it to say, the Maloof brothers (the Kings' owners) did not have this type of season in mind three months ago.
In the offseason, the team committed $60 million over the next five years to the mediocre duo of Beno Udrih and Francisco Garcia. By most accounts, both of these players are best utilized as reserves. However, there weren't many options available for a point guard last summer, thus Udrih ended up scoring more dough than reasonable. His inconsistent play on both ends of the floor and pedestrian 1.89 assist-to-turnover ratio is the biggest reason, next to the loss of emerging All-Star Kevin Martin for 21 games, that the Kings have vastly underachieved this year.
On December 15, the Kings nominated head coach Reggie Theus and his assistant Chuck Person as their fall guys. Kenny Natt was named the interim coach and has led his Kings to a 4-12 record.
While the situation appears bleak, a look at the roster shows that the team has pieces in place around Martin to potentially rebound next season and make a legitimate run at the playoffs. Their rebuilding efforts have netted them promising second-year center Spencer Hawes, rugged rookie Jason Thompson, who is currently starting at power forward, potential-laden Donte Greene and an extra first round pick in the upcoming draft. Udrih and Garcia are both 26 and all of these players, including Martin, are locked up until at least the summer of 2012.
The Kings also have some veterans on their roster that other teams will be seeking out this trade season. Swingman John Salmons has proven that he can be a starter and a difference-maker on both ends of the floor. However, the Kings and Salmons are not currently a great match for each other. His contract lasts through the 2010-2011 season, but both Martin and Garcia are locked up longer and perform similar roles. His value is relatively high at the moment, due to his performances that came while Martin was sidelined with a sprained ankle.
Both Bobby Jackson and Mikki Moore are the types of role-players that teams like the Boston Celtics may seek out to bolster their bench, but their age and contract status doesn't make them very useful for their current franchise.
Yet, no player will be more sought after than two-time All-Star center Brad Miller. The 32-year-old's contract expires after next season, when he is scheduled to make $12.2 million. Miller is regarded as one of the better passing post players in the game and he is still a nightly double-double threat. In a recent game against the Warriors, he scored 30 points and pulled down 22 rebounds.
Hawes, a 20-year-old seven-footer, has shown the ability to handle the starting job in the middle, particularly on the offensive end. Moving Miller would allow the Kings to further ignite his maturation process.
CHICAGO
Perhaps no teams need a center such as Brad Miller more than the Bulls and Heat, but the better trade partner of the two figures to be Chicago. Sure, the Kings would undoubtedly be interested in taking on Shawn Marion's huge expiring contract, but the Heat would likely have to take back another unattractive two-year contract to make the deal work.
The Bulls on the other hand have a mess of available players at multiple positions. Larry Hughes has repeatedly voiced his displeasure with his role on the team. Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas, and Andres Nocioni have not been able to establish their roles in the rotation. And now that Kirk Hinrich is back, coach Vinny Del Negro has an even bigger logjam in the backcourt, led by the new face of the franchise, Derrick Rose.
Over the next three seasons, Hinrich is due a reasonable $26.5 million. However, the figure is not reasonable when considering that he would see less than 25 minutes per game playing behind Rose. While he could be used as a shooting guard, he would be a below average option at the position. Hinrich has averaged 14.3 points and 6.3 assists over five-plus seasons and has shown quality leadership skills. His value to other teams would be far greater than it currently is in Chicago.
If the Bulls have a lack of talent at any position, it would be at center where they start undersized Drew Gooden when he's healthy. Aaron Gray and Joakim Noah fit the mold better, but they are not currently at the level needed to make a positive difference at either end of the floor.
THE TRADE THAT SHOULD HAPPEN
With Derrick Rose locking up 35 minutes per game at point guard, the Bulls cannot justify holding onto Hinrich for the remainder of his deal, which runs through 2012. With Miller in demand, and Hawes looking ready to handle the starter's role, the rebuilding Kings need to get something for him while they can.
Chicago receives Brad Miller
Sacramento receives Kirk Hinrich
The Kings have made a five-year, $33.3 million commitment to point guard Beno Udrih, but it looks apparent that he doesn't have the chops to remain a starter without some further seasoning. Hinrich has shown he can handle the starter's job more successfully, and Sacramento could move Udrih to the backup role, which he is better suited for. Also, moving Miller would allow the youthful post tandem of Thompson and Hawes to learn some valuable lessons together while being backed up by Mikki Moore, Shelden Williams, and Kenny Thomas, who just began playing again recently.
Moving Hinrich will narrow the Bulls guard rotation to Rose, Ben Gordon, Hughes, Lindsey Hunter and Thabo Sefolosha. Also, it opens some additional cap space for the summer of 2010. More importantly, Miller could be the missing piece to push Chicago ahead of Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and New Jersey and into the seventh spot of the playoffs. A starting lineup of Rose-Gordon-Deng-Gooden-Miller, complemented by a deep bench would make them a threat in the playoffs not only this season, but next season as well.
WILL IT HAPPEN?
Both teams will likely try and expand this deal as they both own players that have worn out their welcomes. In Sacramento, the culprit is Kenny Thomas, who has been deemed mostly useless by the franchise. He's played limited minutes in only five games this season, despite not having any noted health problems. He is due $8 million this year and more than $8.5 million next season.
As previously mentioned, Larry Hughes has made it apparent that he is not happy with his role in Chicago and the team may be viewing him as a detriment to the young team. If Paxson cannot move Hughes elsewhere, he may be willing to take on Thomas' bad contr act in order to move the more talented Hughes.
But would the Kings be interested in Hughes? It depends how bad the Kings want to be rid of Thomas. Hughes wouldn't have much more of a role in Sacramento than he did in Chicago without a second deal involving John Salmons.
Whether or not this specific deal goes down, expect to see both of these teams involved in transactions within the next six weeks.
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