| 03 June 2009
We'll be approaching our preview for the Finals a little bit differently than we did for the rest of the playoffs. Bigger games need bigger introductions, so we'll be focusing entire posts on each position leading up to game one. Our first match-up is point guard:
Los Angeles Lakers - Derek Fisher
It is no longer news to anyone that has been following the playoffs that Derek Fisher has never played quite so poorly as he has throughout this postseason. To bring it up any more would just be piling on at this point. Well I'm all about kicking a man when he's down.
Fisher has been about as atrocious in this postseason as I can remember. It's like he hit a wall right before the playoffs started. For anyone who is wondering, yes he is averaging his lowest points per game since the 2000 playoffs when he chipped in 4.7 per game. He was playing half as many minutes during that run. To put it into perspective, Fisher's career average of minutes per game in the playoffs is 26.8 scoring 8.6 points. This postseason he has played exactly 26.8 minutes per game, and his scoring has fallen to 7.1 points per game.
Fisher's main weapon, his three-point shot, has completely abandoned him throughout the Lakers' run to the Finals. A career 43% three-point shooter heading into this year's playoffs, Fisher has only managed to make 23% (12 for 51) of his three-pointers this postseason. Without that weapon, Fisher essentially becomes a non-factor on offense. A problem that only gets compounded by his loss of lateral quickness and inability to slow down his man on defense.
The question that has to be asked (although no one besides this site is asking) is why is Phil Jackson sticking with a guy that has been so obviously over-matched? Is it because of loyalty to a guy that has been a leader for him in the past? Is Fisher the only guy Kobe Bryant really trusts playing point? Does Phil just like the extra challenge of not featuring two much-better-at-this-time point guards in Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar? The Lakers would have had no problem sweeping the Nuggets had Phil given Fisher's minutes to Brown and Farmar, and Farmar would be a huge upgrade over Fisher in this series.
Orlando Magic - Rafer Alston
The Magic have big question marks to deal with at the point guard position also.
All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson tore his labrum in a game on February 2 and hasn't played since then. At the time Orlando figured he would be out for the rest of the season and announced just that about ten days later. But his absence was very difficult to overcome, and the Magic were left dependent on Anthony Johnson (which is never a good thing). Orlando acquired Rafer Alston at the trade deadline to fill the void left by Nelson.
Alston has been hit and miss throughout the postseason. He demolished the Sixers in the first round averaging 15.2 points, 4.8 assists and 1.2 steals on 43% field goal shooting and 39% from deep. It appeared he would be more than a stop-gap at that point, but that only served to augment his playoff stats. He was more miss than hit against Boston averaging 10 points on 11.5 shots per game. He shot over 40% only once in six games and had a 2-1 assists-to-turnover ratio. He was erratic at best against Cleveland, but he didn't need to be more than that. He saved his best performance for the series-changing fourth game with 26 points, 4 assists, 2 steals and 6 made threes.
Alston also brings very unimpressive stats against the Lakers into this series, so whatever Derek Fisher lost this season was still intact against Rafer. Alston averaged only 9 points and 3.5 assists per game in the two match-ups against Los Angeles. He shot just 35% from the field and 28% from three. He is most effective when he plays mistake-free, but he couldn't manage that against the Lakers this season with 2 turnovers per game. On the flip-side, Fisher hasn't fared much better than head-to-head with Alston. Fisher averaged just 7 points per game on 37% from the field and no made threes in their two match-ups.
At this point, Alston is only slightly better than Fisher because he seems to have more left in the tank, but his inconsistent play almost brings it back to push territory.
Or Could It Be Nelson?
The real question heading into this series is: Can Jameer Nelson actually play and give the Magic quality minutes? Nelson was the player that seemed to put Orlando over the hump throughout the early part of the season. He was playing the best ball of his career and became arguably the best fourth option any team could have. He was huge part of the Magic's success on the road. Nelson was actually a better player on the road averaging 3.5 more points without a dip in his field goal or three-point percentages. Nelson also was the main reason the Magic swept the season series against the Lakers. He played his best ball against LA torching Fisher for 27.5 points, 5 boards and 6.5 assists on 59% from the field and 58% from three.
At the time of his surgery, doctors believed that he would miss between four to six months in order to properly rehab. It has now been just under four months since then, so you can understand why Nelson's teammates would be encouraged by what he has done in practice this week. The only problem is that there is no way he can be the exact same player he was earlier this season unless he is 100% healed. That isn't very likely. So the Magic would be left with Nelson not playing at full strength and one fall or hard foul away from doing serious damage to his shoulder. We'll see if Jameer has a little Willis Reed in him to tough it out, but his suiting up alone could be a huge mental boost for his teammates and turn up the heat ever so slightly on the Lakers.
Edge: Magic
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