| 23 June 2009
Our continuing look at the needs of ever club and any potential assets that can be utilized to obtain those needs. Today we'll be looking at the Southeast:
Orlando Magic
Draft Pick(s): None
Free Agents: Hedo Turkoglu, Marcin Gortat, Tyronn Lue, Adonal Foyle & Jeremy Richardson
Team Needs: Back-up C & size in their frontcourt
Assets: Expiring contracts heading into next offseason including Rafer Alston who should be moved before the season starts.
It was no surprise that Hedo Turkoglu chose to not pick up his player option this offseason and test the free agent waters. Turkoglu's production this season dropped noticably compared to last season's Most Improved Player bid, but he was a clutch performer in the postseason. At 30, this also might be his last opportunity to cash in as a free agent.
The Magic have claimed they'll do whatever it takes to bring Hedo back and not break up their core, but that could have repercussions that could hurt the club. Whatever the Magic end up paying Turkoglu could push them well beyond the luxury tax. This isn't the type of franchise that can throw money around like the Celtics or Knicks, so we'll see if they'll put their money where their mouth is.
The other concern raised by re-signing Hedo is the future of Marcin Gortat. Orlando may not have the ability to pay Hedo whatever he wants and match any offer for Gortat who became a hot commodity after filling in at center whenever Dwight Howard was in foul trouble. He doesn't have eye-popping numbers, but his production in limited minutes could be very enticing for a number of teams.
The other goal for Orlando this offseason will be moving Rafer Alston. Alston was a stopgap to run the team until Jameer Nelson came back from injury. He also did a phenomenal job leading the team during the first two rounds of the playoffs and was playing with confidence and swagger. The Magic's run to the finals was improbable and created a problem at the point. The deep run allowed Nelson to recover from his injuries and start to play against the Lakers, but his increase in minutes shook Alston's confidence and created conflict. Now the Magic will have to find a taker for Alston, and it shouldn't be an issue considering his expiring contract.
The Magic have no picks in Thursday's draft, but they can still be active in the trade market. Any team looking for a point guard could trade for Alston as a one-year solution. This would allow a team to draft more of a project at point and gives them a year to develop the pick.
Atlanta Hawks
Draft Pick(s): 19th & 39th
Free Agents: Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams, Zaza Pachulia, Ronald Murray, Solomon Jones, Thomas Gardner & Mario West
Team Needs: PG, C, SF and back-up everything
Assets: If they're trying to win now, Speedy Claxton and Mo Evans have movable contracts. They'd also like to move Josh Smith, but his long-term deal will make that difficult. If they don't care about this season, Joe Johnson's expiring $15 million contract.
The Hawks are at a crossroads this offseason. They have made the playoffs the past two seasons but have been bounced in the first round both years. They have a number of key guys hitting the free agent market and could either decide to look to the future or right now. The biggest name in their free agent crop being Mike Bibby.
Bibby was the catalyst that got Atlanta back into the playoffs in 2008 after a 10 year drought. He was the veteran leader that the Hawks needed and a proven playoff performer (I love alliteration) that could show the younger players the ropes. If Atlanta brings Bibby back, it should be for no more than three years and shouldn't break their bank, but we'll see if Bibby is willing to accept that after being overpaid for the last four seasons.
The other concern will be re-signing Marvin Williams. We all know that the Hawks should have taken Chris Paul or Deron Williams over Williams in the 2005 draft, but that was hardly his fault. He has been judged negatively as a result ever since. Despite that Williams has been a very solid NBA player since coming into the league. He is a restricted free agent this offseason, and there should be some interest from other teams. The only factor that could help the Hawks save on his contract is the availability of bigger name forwards.
That will leave the Hawks with a decision of whether to re-sign Zaza Pachulia or Ronald Murray. They may be able to sign both and make this point moot.
There will be a lot of questions as to what the Hawks should do heading into the draft. There is no guarantee that Atlanta will be able to re-sign all of their free agents, so they certainly will be looking to fill any potential openings via the draft. They'll have a number of options at 19 with Jeff Teague, Eric Maynor and Darren Collison available at point guard and Chase Budinger and Sam Young available at the wing positions. Atlanta also is very high on Tyler Hansbrough, but that just might be conjecture to force another team to move up for him.
Miami Heat
Draft Pick(s): 43rd & 60th
Free Agents: Smush Parker, Jamario Moon, Jamal Magloire, Joel Anthony & Luther Head
Team Needs: C, SF & back-up PG
Assets: More expiring deals than you can shake a stick at.
The Heat have put themselves into a perfect positions for next summer. They'll only have about $13 million committed when they pick up the options on Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers, Daequan Cook and James Jones. Miami can then back the Brinks truck up to Dwyane Wade's front door when he inevitably opts out to cash in. Even with his max deal next season, let's assume the salary cap will be set at $58 million, so the Heat will have an additional $20-25 million to spend on the rest of the free agent class next summer.
Unfortunately this translates to very unexciting summer of 2009 for Miami. The Heat may end up re-signing Jamario Moon to fill a need, but they don't have the cap space to do much more than that. We'll see if they even choose to use their Mid-Level Exception this summer since it may just end up being a waste.
Of course the Heat are prepared to pay Dwyane Wade whatever he wants no matter what their cap situation next summer, so Miami may decide to use Jermaine O'Neal's expiring $23 million contract or work out a package that includes Udonis Haslem. Just don't hold your breath.
The draft will give the Heat an opportunity to add more depth. Unfortunately they won't be making their first pick until after David Stern has stopped announcing the picks. At that point, the Heat will just be looking for the best player available no matter what position. They should look for a back-up point guard or anyone to play in the front court. Don't be surprised if they drafted a project to store overseas for a year or two.
Charlotte Bobcats
Draft Pick(s): 12th, 40th & 54th
Free Agents: Raymond Felton, Sean May, Juwan Howard & Sean Singletary
Team Needs: SG & PG
Assets: Raja Bell can be moved. Nazr Mohammed and Vlad Radmanovich have contracts that could be appealing.
The Bobcats are going to be a tough nut to crack this offseason. They have brought on a number of contracts that could scare off any trade partners. The have Boris Diaw, Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor signed for $9 million or more for at least the next 3 seasons (Okafor is signed through 2014).
Charlotte also haven't given themselves much cap flexibility this or next offseason. Raja Bell is their only expiring contract next summer unless Radmanovich opts out of his contract which isn't likely. That leaves them with very few moves they can realistically make this summer, and very few teams would consider making a trade to bring on more payroll with the number of free agents next season.
It looks like Charlotte is willing to let Sean May walk. They have chosen not to give him a qualifying offer making him an unrestricted free agent. That will allow may to test the free agent waters, but it also gives the Bobcats the ability to re-sign him at a smaller contract. They have however made a qualifying offer to Raymond Felton and should be able to re-sign him to a long term deal. This at least will address one need at point guard.
With Felton signed and Augustin still under his rookie contract, the Bobcats should look to draft a shooting guard at 12. Gerald Henderson will definitely be available and Terrence Williams might be there too. Either player would be a good fit for Charlotte. Williams isn't great offensively, but he is a very good defender. He also is a great rebounder for his size. Henderson is more polished on offense and a very smart player. His midrange game is about as good as anyone coming out in the draft. Williams will probably be the better player when it's all said and done, but Charlotte should take a long hard look at Henderson considering their 27th ranked offense last season.
Washington Wizards
Draft Pick(s): 5th & 32nd
Free Agents: Juan Dixon
Team Needs: SG & C
Assets: Washington has a plethora of expiring contracts for next summer, and there are quite a few teams that would take on Antawn Jamison's contract.
The Wizards will not be major players in this offseason's free agent market. They just don't have the cap space to make a splash. This may also be the case in next summer's bonanza. They have nearly $54 million already tied up ($41 million of which going to Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison), and that is before they pick up the options on Nick Young, Javaris Crittenton and JaVale McGee. If they pick up all their team options, they'll be looking at a $67-68 million payroll after signing their draft picks.
With that being said, Washington will not be changing the make-up of their team through free agency. It is more likely that they'll be looking to trade Jamison for expiring contracts or use Etan Thomas, Mike James or Brendan Haywood and their expiring contracts to bring in another big name player. No matter how you slice it, Arenas' contract has put the Wizards in a very uneviable position and leaves them about as flexible as a 75-year-old man.
The draft will be the best avenue for the Wizards to pick up a talented player. They have a need at shooting guard, so they are hoping that James Harden falls to them at 5. Harden is a very good scorer, a good off-ball defender and not DeShawn Stevenson, so basically he is a triple-threat. The Wizards would love to have him and make Stevenson expendable. If he doesn't fall to them at 5, Washington will be left with a choice of Jordan Hill, Stephen Curry or Tyreke Evans (if available). Hill would be drafted to give them the ability to trade Jamison whereas Curry and Evans would be able to play both guard positions and take the pressure off of Arenas to handle the ball.
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