| 18 June 2009
Now that the season is over and we're a week away from the draft, the real fun begins. We've entered the time where speculation takes over. The Trade Machine gets fired up and free agents jump ship to move on to greener (read: more lucrative) pastures.
All the speculation and rumor mongering in the world is nothing without first identifying what teams need, what assets they have to move and whether or not they have the available cap to bring in a big name free agent (and whether or not they're willing to use said cap space).
Over the next few days we'll be giving an overview of each division and what each team will be trying to do this offseason. We'll start where rumors run rampant: the Atlantic Division.
Boston Celtics
Draft Pick(s): 58th
Free Agents: Stephon Marbury, Leon Powe, Glen Davis & Mikki Moore
Team Needs: Depth at PF/C & back-up PG
Tradeable Assets: Ray Allen has an expiring contract this season making him movable, and there have been rumors that the Celtics are shopping Rajon Rondo.
Any time a star player goes down, a team will have a hard time replacing him, and moving a bench player into the starting line-up will wreak havoc on a team's depth. This was abundantly clear with the injury to Kevin Garnett. His knee kept him out of the playoffs, and Boston was dependant on the production of Big Baby, Leon Powe and Mikki Moore. Davis and Powe filled in admirably for Garnett, but they could only do so much to match his intensity and production. All three back-up power forwards/centers are free agents heading into the offseason and Garnett's health is a big question mark.
Boston's biggest problem in addressing potential issues is their cap space (or lack thereof). They'll be significantly over the cap and reliant on brining players in using their mid-level exception. Their only other option is to make a trade.
There have been soom rumblings of a potential trade that would send Rajon Rondo to the Kings for Jason Thompson and Sacramento's fourth pick. This would solve one problem at back-up PF and create another at point guard. That would leave them without one of the better point guards in the league with no viable back-up to take his place. In that scenario, the Celtics would likely look to use the fourth pick on one of the available point guards in the draft. It would appear the Celtics don't have the depth at either position to make that deal.
Something Boston should consider is moving Ray Allen. His contract runs through the end of this upcoming season which makes him an asset to any team trying to shed salary for next season's free agent class. Allen showed he still has some bullets left in the chamber and has the outside shooting that any team would love to have. They could definitely exchange Allen for good, young players, and should consider it for long-term success. The problem is Ray Allen was Boston's best player in the playoffs this season, and moving him would be a big risk for the upcoming season if Garnett is healthy.
Philadelphia 76ers
Draft Pick(s): 17th
Free Agents: Andre Miller, Donyell Marshall, Theo Ratliff, Kareem Rush & Royal Ivey
Team Needs: PG & back-up C
Tradeable Assets: Thaddeus Young & Lou Williams make too little to get anything of equal value, and Andre Iguodala & Elton Brand make too much to move.
The Sixers went wild this past offseason locking up Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand into long-term deals. Those two are obviously their nucleus guys around which Philadelphia will build. Brand dealt with injuries that just so happened to coincide with the Sixers working their way back into contention in the East. So questions remain heading into this offseason about whether Brand is a good fit with the other players on this team (i.e. Iguodala, Sam Dalembert, Lou Williams, Thad Young, etc.).
The Sixers have already addressed two of their most pressing needs: coaching and outside shooting. Eddie Jordan is a good coach. He deserved another shot, and should make the most of it with this club. Philly also brought in Jason Kapono, one of the best statistical three-point shooters in the league, in exchange for Reggie Evans. Williams, Young and Willie Green just aren't consistent enough from three-point range, and the Sixers will need good spot-up shooters to compliment Brand. Brand demands double-teams, so he'll need reliable outside shooting to keep defenses honest and give him the ability to go to work down low. Kapono should give the Philly offense a legitimate deep threat.
The biggest concern this offseason will be the potential departure of Andre Miller to free agency. Miller was the driving force for the Sixers after the Brand injury averaging nearly 17 points, 6.6 assists and 5 rebounds after the All-Star break. He has been the veteran leader that a young team like Philly desperately needs and other teams would love to have. Miller is 33, so there could be concerns giving out anything more than a 3-year deal. There certainly will be at least one team willing to give him a contract along those lines, and the Sixers may not be willing to match it.
The Sixers may decide to hand the PG duties to Lou Williams, but this would be a mistake. Williams is a scorer and exciting player, but he just isn't the guy to run a team. If they let Miller walk, look for Philadelphia to address the point guard situation in the draft especially if Ty Lawson falls to them at 17.
New Jersey Nets
Draft Pick(s): 11th
Free Agents: Stromile Swift & Maurice Ager
Team Needs: SF, PF & back-up everything
Tradeable Assets: Bobby Simmons' albatross contract expires at the end of the season and could be used. The Nets also have an abundance of young players with moveable contracts.
The Nets have a talented pieces especially at PG, SG and C, but they need to improve their depth and the forward positions. Yi Jianlian has skills and could develop into something special, but he is an inconsistent shooter and isn't a dependable post player. Bobby Simmons is nowhere near worth the money he is being paid, but he is a very good outside shooter. He is the type of player that should be brought off the bench, but he is forced to start on this club. Josh Boone fell out of grace getting 10 fewer minutes per game last season despite fantastic defensive Per 36 numbers.
It may seem strange reading that one of the Nets' needs is SF when there are 4 already on the roster, but all of those players seem to be back-ups. The one player that could make that point moot is Ryan Anderson. Anderson showed some growth as the season progressed and seemed to be the guy late in his rookie year. He may be able to develop into a legit starter.
The real need is at power forward. Yi has the length to play the position, but he doesn't rebound like a seven-footer. Eduardo Najera is a roster filler at this point of his career. The problem is, outside of Blake Griffin, most of the power forwards in this year's draft are projects or have a lot of question marks. DeJuan Blair should be available at 11 and could be a good fit. They also could look to move Bobby Simmons' expiring contract in exchange for a PF and take a prototypical point guard in the draft to spell Devin Harris or run a small lineup. Outside of those options, the Nets don't have the cap to get a game-changer at the position; they could bring in an MLE guy.
Toronto Raptors
Draft Pick(s): 9
Free Agents: Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker, Joey Graham, Jorge Garbajosa & Jake Voskuhl
Team Needs: SG, SF, & C
Assets: Chris Bosh is very moveable at this point, but do the Raptors want to do that?
The Raptors have maneuvered themselves into a very favorable cap position. Shawn Marion's $17 million is now off the books, and that gives them a lot of wiggle room this offseason. Unfortunately they also have a lot of needs to address with that cap space. Toronto has about $12 million available to spend on free agents and will need to use it on multiple positions.
The biggest needs are at the wing positions with Marion and Anthony Parker heading into free agency and Joey Graham a restricted free agent. Compaound that with the Jason Kapono trade, and the Raptors are left without a single SG or SF on the roster. I'm no expert, but I'm pretty sure a team can't win with only point guards or power forwards on their roster.
Expect them to try and re-sign Parker and give Graham his qualifying offer. There shouldn't be a bidding war for those two players, and the Raptors should be able to keep them without breaking their bank. Marion will go where the money is, but Toronto might not be the team that wants to spend it on him. Center will be the toughest position to fill. Andrea Bargnani is still developing and could become a very good player, but his lack of rebounding is worrisome. Bargnani was significantly better as a starter last season, so Toronto could be looking for a back-up that makes up for his rebounding numbers.
Demar Derozan seems like the pick for the Raptors if he falls to them. He's raw, but he could develop into something special. He also addresses a need at both SG and possibly SF. Derozan may not help the Raptors immediately, but he could be a project that pays off for them. If they're looking for more immediate impact, the Raptors could consider Gerald Henderson. Henderson is more polished and older than Derozan. He's also a much better outside shooter and could be a full time starter before the season is up. If another team talks themselves into taking Derozan before the Raptors, Henderson wouldn't be a booby prize.
New York Knicks
Draft Pick(s): 8th
Free Agents: Chris Wilcox, Nate Robinson & David Lee
Team Needs: PG, SG & C
Assets: A lot of expiring contracts, but they'll need those to go crazy in the free agent market next offseason.
The Knicks have two goals this offseason: 1. Re-sign fan favorites Nate Robinson and David Lee and 2. Hold on to as much available cap space as they can for next offseason.
It would be a PR nightmare to lose Lee or Robinson at this point, so it would appear that the Knicks are going to bring back both of their restricted free agents. They have no cap room available this offseason to spend on other free agents, so they'll have to be okay with bringing back the slam dunk champ and their all-hustle guy. Both flourished under Mike D'Antoni (what else is new?), so they will be cashing in. On the bright side, they are both restricted free agents, so New York can match any offer.
They do have the ability to move some expiring deals to bring in more talent since they are severly lacking in that department, but don't expect it. The Knicks have been building for the free agent bonanza next season and shouldn't jepordize that. It would make more sense for the Knicks to use Lee or Robinson in a sign-and-trade scenario if they really wanted to bring in new blood.
No offense to Chris Duhon, but he isn't the prototypical Mike D'Antoni point guard. The draft will be the best place to address that issue with a glut of very good point guards declaring. Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Jennings and Jonny Flynn could all be available for the Knicks to take at 8. There is also a possibility that New York could trade up and make a run at Ricky Rubio. No matter where they end up picking, the Knicks should end up with a new point guard.
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