| 19 May 2009
Will the real Los Angeles Lakers please stand up?
How Did The Lakers Get Here
The Lakers were without question the best team in the Western Conference this season, and they looked the part in round one against the Utah Jazz. They dominated the series at both ends of the floor. It wasn't a question of if they would make the Finals but how many games they would need to get there. The Conference Semis against Houston was a different story altogether. Los Angeles immediately dropped game one and had no answer for Yao Ming, Aaron Brooks and Shane Battier's defense. It did however seem to get them interested in the series again, and they took the next two games by double-digits. Then news came that Yao would miss the rest of the postseason, and it seemed that Lakers couldn't possibly lose. They went on to play the four most disjointed games a supposed NBA Championship contender has ever played. They lost the two remaining games in Houston and played rather poorly, but they were able to win games five and seven by a combined 59 points and ultimately win the series. Despite their inconsistent play and determination to not show up ready to win every game, many still consider the Lakers to be the favorite in this series and have decided to ignore what happened against Houston.
How Did The Nuggets Get Here
The Nuggets have looked about as dominant as a team can during their march to the Conference Finals. No one would consider the teams that they faced in the first two rounds as world beaters, but the Nuggets did exactly what great teams should do in those situations: blow them out to the point that it crushes their hope. The Nuggets have played well no matter the venue, but they have been especially dominant at home. They are 6-0 at the Pepsi Center and have an average margin or victory of 17.5 points on their home court. There are still questions whether they've really beaten an elite team yet, but that should only be a question if they had barely eked out the series against New Orleans and Dallas. They still haven't had to face an elite post player during this run, and Kobe Bryant seems to lick his chops when playing Denver. They play a very different style than Houston, so we'll see if that translates to more or less success against Los Angeles.
Match-Up History
06/07: Denver 3-1
07/08: Los Angeles 3-0 regular season & 4-0 playoffs
08/09: Los Angeles 3-1
Match-Ups by Position
Point Guard - Derek Fisher vs Chauncey Billups
Billups is obviously a much better player than Derek Fisher. He has played about as well as a point guard can throughout this playoff run. He is averaging playoff career highs in points, assists, field goal percentage, three-point percentage and free throw percentage. In fact his stats are almost unbelievable at this point. 22.1 points and 7.3 assist while shooting 49% from the field and 54% from three and averaging 3.3 made threes per game. Fisher meanwhile has looked overmatched at the point, but he should look better against Billups than he did against Brooks. Billups is a different type of player than Brooks. He uses his savvy because he doesn't have the same foot-speed. Fisher isn't going to be left in the dust as often as he was against the Rockets, but he still is over-matched.
Edge: Nuggets
Shooting Guard - Kobe Bryant vs Dahntay Jones
Bryant is the best shooting guard in the league, so he will always hold the advantage in any head-to-head match-up. He is however going against a player very similar to Shane Battier, and we all know how that looked. Jones will have the job of keeping Kobe from getting off to a hot start. He is a pretty good defender and will have to stay on his feet and force Kobe into tough shots. How well he can do his job will determine whether the Nuggets can keep games from getting away from them.
Edge: Lakers
Small Forward - Trevor Ariza vs Carmelo Anthony
No player has raised his game more this postseason than Carmelo Anthony. The guy is not only doing it all, but he is doing it more efficiently. He has averaged 27 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists and has shot 48% from the field, 45% from three and 83% from the line. He has the same determination and drive that he had on Syracuse's NCAA title run. And like that run, he has looked like the best player on the floor and knows it. The Lakers seemed to have the answer for him in their regular season match-ups holding him to 14.5 points and 33% field goal shooting. If Ariza can carry over that defensive effort and slow him down, the Nuggets don't have a shot.
Edge: Nuggets
Power Forward - Pau Gasol vs Kenyon Martin
There hasn't been a better power forward in this season's playoffs than Pau Gasol. He has done just about everything the Lakers have needed him to do and then some. He is scoring, rebounding and blocking shots. He is shooting a high percentage from the field and is near-impossible to stop in the post. The one knock on him has been his poor free throw shooting, but that is offset by his ability to get opposing big men in almost immediate foul trouble. Martin is an agitator and will do his best to get into Gasol's head and out of his comfort zone, but Gasol seems to be on a roll that even Martin can't slow down.
Edge: Lakers
Center - Andrew Bynum vs Nene Hilario
Nene has done an admirable job since the departure of Marcus Camby. He has played great defense. You don't see him rack up a lot blocked shots or steals, but he does stay between his man and the basket, takes charges and does little things that win games. He hasn't been as effective as he was in the regular season, but he hasn't had to be. Bynum was supposed to be the different this postseason and the reason why the Lakers would be winning it all. He was supposed to be the defensive presence in the post, but he has been more determined to rack up fouls than blocked shots. He has also be ineffective at scoring and rebounding so far. Bynum does have the size to cause problems in the post, but Nene has the quickness to burn him on the other end. This may decide the series.
Edge: Nuggets
Bench - Odom/Walton/Vujacic/Farmar vs Smith/Andersen/Kleiza/Carter
As hyped as the Lakers' bench has been this season, the Nuggets' second unit has played as well if not better than the Lakers'. Lamar Odom has moments of brilliance and moments of head-scratching frustration. This series could be his moment to shine again with the uptempo style that Denver prefers. J.R. Smith's one and only job is to come off the bench and score (preferably from three). Smith has averaged 2.4 threes made this postseason while shooting 41% from deep. The Lakers' defense has had tough time guarding the perimeter against Houston, so this could be a boon for Smith. Chris Andersen seems to ignite the Nuggets any time he blocks a shot. The rest of the guys on either side are role players that do the little things and can play multiple positions.
Edge: Push
Coach - Phil Jackson vs George Karl
I have been harsh on George Karl since the playoffs started. He just hadn't done anything to impress me in a postseason run to trust him. That has changed with what has happened so far during this playoff run. He has made great substitutions and exploited any advantages his team has. He always seems to inspire his team to open and close quarters with a lot of fire and gets the most out of his players. With all that being said, Phil Jackson is still the better coach and has the hardware to prove it. His team may have under-achieved a little against the Rockets, but they still won when they had to, and Jackson still exploited the Rockets where he could.
Edge: Lakers
X-Factor - Home Court
There is no bigger x-factor in this series than home court. The Lakers have only lost one game at Staples and the Nuggets have yet to lose at the Pepsi Center. It is tough to imagine either team dropping a game at home at this point which basically means this is a seven-game series waiting to happen. The key for the Nuggets will be to win one of the first three games in Staples if they have any hope to win the series.
Prediction - Lakers in 7
This is why a team plays all season to secure a game seven at home, and I think it is going to be the difference. The Lakers don't have the same luxury of taking nights off against the Nuggets, and they could lose the series if they do. The Nuggets are the type of team that can carry over confidence from quarter to quarter and game to game, and they should be a good foil to the Lakers. Ultimately the Lakers play better when teams try to run with them, and their length is going to cause problems for Denver.
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
