| 04 May 2009
Bat**** crazy takes on cold-blooded killer. Is Ron Artest capable of shutting down Kobe Bryant?
How Did The Lakers Get Here
I could try really hard to come up with a statistical breakdown or some unknown reason to explain how the Lakers got to the second round of the playoffs, but it comes down to nothing more than they were much better than the Utah Jazz. Kobe Bryant has been playing more team oriented ball since the season began saving his assassin mode until the end of games, but he still manages to put up ridiculous stats. Pau Gasol has been a top five power forward this season and the perfect yin to Kobe's yang. Gasol works is the steadying hand in the post that the Lakers have needed since Shaq left and is the perfect big man for the triangle offense. Lamar Odom has thrived in the role of third banana. All these things showed in their first round dominance over the Jazz. The Lakers also had the added bonus of Trevor Ariza's coming out party. Ariza averaged 12, 4 and 4.2 along with 1 steal and 2 three-pointers made per game against the Jazz. He shot 61% from the field and from three and added great defense. With Los Angeles' big three putting up their normal stats and Ariza adding just a little extra production, the Lakers were near-invincible in round one and carry it over to round two.
How Did The Rockets Get Here
The Rockets had quite a tough road to hoe on paper coming into round one. They had to match up against the hungry, young Portland Trail Blazers. They were starting on the road in Portland where the Blazers were brimming with confidence after having amassed a 34-7 record. The Rockets responded with the classic "punch'em in the mouth" game one performance feeding Yao early and often, shutting down Brandon Roy's supporting cast, and riding the deep shooting of Aaron Brooks. That set the tone for the series and the defense carried the Rockets for the next 5 games. Allowing only 87 points per game and holding the usually efficient Blazer offense to 44% from the field (even more impressive when you look at 8 fewer points per 100 possessions). On the other side of the ball, the scoring for the Rockets was very balanced in the first round with four players averaging 15 or more points and two other players averaging 9 points per contest.
Match-Up History
07/08: Rockets 2-1
08/09: Lakers 4-0
Phil Jackson vs Rick Adelman (including playoffs): 42-20 in favor of Jackson. Staggering isn't it?
Match-Ups by Position
Point Guard - Derek Fisher vs. Aaron Brooks
The old vet versus the young pup. Fisher has played in more playoff games in his career than Brooks has played total games. What the 13 year veteran lacks in athleticism, he more than makes up for in mental toughness, shot-making and experience. Brooks has shown he is the guy at the point ever since Rafer Alston was moved at the trade deadline. Since the beginning of March, Brooks has averaged 13.2 points and 3.2 assists on 42% from the field and 39% from three. Fisher will look to make big plays toward the end of games as a way to match that production.
Edge: Rockets
Shooting Guard - Kobe Bryant vs. Shane Battier
This is the classic offense versus defense match-up that many teams have tried against Kobe, but the strategy rarely works. Battier was much-improved offensively in round one, but he has essentially become a one-way player in the mold of Bruce Bowen. He plays great defense and is an average offensive player. This doesn't work against Kobe (and never really has). Bryant only has to work on one side of the ball and has more energy on offense as a result. He basically gets to take a break every time he plays defense. The Rockets will give Kobe different looks at the defensive end throwing any number of players at him, but ultimately he is still the best player on the court.
Edge: Lakers
Small Forward - Trevor Ariza vs. Ron Artest
As was written before, Trevor Ariza played great ball in the first round and is slowly making himself known to casual basketball fans across the country. He is a plus defender and has worked all season adding weapons to his offensive game. Artest is still absolutely nuts and has become a perfect complimentary player to Yao on the defensive end. He can make terrible decisions from time to time and can shoot a team out of a game when he goes into his hero mode, but his talent at both ends of the floor is unquestionable. Artest will have his work cut out for him on defense having to guard Ariza, Bryant, Odom and Gasol at different times throughout the game, but he gets the positional edge for what he potentially can do.
Edge: Rockets
Power Forward - Pau Gasol vs. Luis Scola
No offense to Luis Scola who is a very good player, but this match-up really isn't close. Pau Gasol is arguably the best power forward still in the playoffs (sorry Dirk). He matched his stellar production of the regular season almost exactly in round one and actually became more efficient. Gasol improved his shooting in the playoffs and has looked more active on defense against a tough guard in Carlos Boozer. His speed is very deceptive. He gets up and down the floor very well and always seems to find a seam to the basket. His post game is incredibly polished, and his length can give opponents fits on both sides of the ball. Scola has looked great so far leading the Rockets in scoring in round one and doing a phenomenal job on LaMarcus Aldridge, but he has a whole new animal to deal with in round two.
Edge: Lakers
Center - Andrew Bynum vs. Yao Ming
We've been hearing all year that the Lakers will be so much better with a healthy Andrew Bynum. He has gotten some games under his belt (not looking that great in them) and now has the biggest test of his young career: Guarding Yao Ming in a seven game series. Yao is without question the best player on the Rockets, but he often is underutilized by Houston. There are stretches during the game when he doesn't touch the ball even though he causes match-up nightmares with his size, ability to finish around the hoop and free throw shooting. The Rockets need a huge series from Yao to hang against the Lakers.
Edge: Rockets
Bench - Odom/Brown/Vujacic vs. Wafer/Hayes/Lowry
The Lakers may also start Lamar Odom to cause match-up problems, but he should come off the bench and can be a game-changer in this series. If he plays like he did against the Jazz, the Lakers will win going away. Brown is another key. The Lakers will need him to keep up his stellar play of the past month and outplay Lowry enough to offset Brooks' production. The Rockets' bench will have to hit outside shots and hope Hayes can be enough of a pest to bother Gasol and Bynum when he is in the game. The Lakers are better overall off the bench, but the Rockets' do have role players that can produce.
Edge: Lakers
Coach - Phil Jackson vs. Rick Adelman
How many times does Rick Adelman have to get outcoached by Phil Jackson in the playoffs? As a veteran of this particular match-up, I can tell you that Jackson is and will always be the better coach, and Adelman knows it. The reason: Jackson coaches to win and Adelman coaches to not screw up. Jackson will once again show off why he constantly owns Adelman head-to-head.
Edge: Lakers
X-Factor - Experience
The Lakers flat out have a lot more playoff experience than the Rockets, and they have more experience being successful in the playoffs. Fisher and Bryant (sounds like a heating and air company) seem to be hitting clutch shots every May. The rest of the Lakers' roster got most of their playoff reps last season on their push for the Finals. Pau Gasol played in almost twice as many playoff games last season as the six years prior combined. Lamar Odom has built up his playoff resume over the last few seasons. The only players to have ever made it out of the first round on the Rockets' active roster are Ron Artest, Brent Barry and Brian Cook. One team is loaded with guys that have tasted success in the playoffs and the other is loaded with guys that haven't come through in big playoff games. You can bet that will come into play in this series.
Prediction - Lakers in 6 games
Many believe that this will be a blowout. The Lakers will dominate every facet of the game and will need no more than five games to do it. It just feels like a closer series than that. Are we really supposed to believe that Bynum will not only hang with Yao but outplay him? Can't Scola get under Gasol's skin just like he gets under everyone elses? Isn't tough defense and the willingness to punch their opponent in the teeth that same thing Boston did last year to win the title? Sure there is no way Adelman out-coaches Jackson in any close game. Yes the likelihood of Artest trying to outplay Kobe is very high (and potentially a car wreck waiting to happen). The Lakers are the better team, and they will show it ultimately winning the series. They just won't look as dominant as they did in round one.
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