| 28 May 2009
Preseason Expectations
There weren't any real expectations for this team going into the season. The Wizards knew that they weren't going to be with the services of Gilbert Arenas to start the season (after signing a six-year, $111 million contract). But they didn't know how long. They also knew that they were going to miss Brendan Haywood for at least four months to start the season when he was coming off the best year of his career. But Wizards fans and pundits all had hopeful expectations that the team would be able to persevere through the injuries like they had the previous two seasons. The thought was that if Gilbert could come back before the second half of the season began and the team was within striking distance of the playoffs, they could make a push to finish the year strong and be disruptive come playoff time. Eddie Jordan had done such a great job of turning injuries into opportunities for other guys to succeed on the team and he would be given the same task with arguably a much deeper team thanks to an infusion of young, hungry players.
Most realistic win total prediction was between 35 and 43 games depending on how long Gilbert was out.
What Happened This Season?Well, Gilbert didn't exactly come back before the second half of the season began. He didn't exactly come back by the All-Star break either. In fact, he wasn't even back by St. Patrick's Day. Gilbert didn't come back until March 28th when the Wizards were sporting a record of 17-56, which was 21 games behind the previous season's mark when they didn't have Gilbert Arenas past November 16th. Brendan Haywood didn't make it back until April 1st and the Wizards were never able to consistently fill his role in the starting lineup with young guys like Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee. Throw in the fact that Caron Butler missed double-digit games due to injury for the fourth time in seven seasons and the third straight season and the Wizards seemed doomed for failure. Eddie Jordan wasn't able to rally his guys to come together as a thin roster and it ended up costing him his job.
So what was wrong with the Wizards? To put it simplistically, they simply couldn't score enough points. To break it down a little bit more in-depth, they couldn't score as a team like they did the previous season when they were 14th in the league in scoring per game. Last season the Wizards scoring surprisingly well despite missing their leading scorer for over 70 games. They scored 109 points per 100 possessions and gave up 109 points per 100 possessions, which gave a lot of their games a basic flip of the coin odds in being decided. This season the Wizards scoring dropped off significantly, as did their defense. They were racking up just 105 points per 100 possessions while giving up 114. The drop off in production and effort on both ends of the floor coupled with a sentiment within the organization that Eddie Jordan's voice was falling on deft ears, leading to an inability to lead this team caused the Washington hire-ups to can Jordan and bring in Ed Tapscott to finish out the year.
Final Record: 19-63, 15th in Eastern Conference
Three Defining Moments
1. Gilbert Arenas/Brendan Haywood out for extended periods of time
This wasn't just significant because of the fact that these guys missed a combined 156 games due to injury. It was significant because once again the Wizards had to endure extended injuries that put their other top players (Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler) under insurmountable odds and thinned out positions in which they didn't have much depth. DeShawn Stevenson also missed 50 games this season and it put guys like Nick Young, JaVale McGee and Dominic McGuire in a position of playing overmatched every night out with little help in sight. Between the re-signings of Arenas and Jamison, the Wizards decided that status quo was more important in selling seats than possibly exploring other, younger, and healthier options for the $160 million they spent.
2. Eddie Jordan fired
After the Wizards lost 10 of their first 11 games, the front office decided that Eddie Jordan had lost his influence over this team and replaced him with assistant coach Ed Tapscott. Despite the fact that I often mistook Tapscott and Fred Armisen's imitation of New York Governor, David Patterson, this wasn't a very entertaining team to watch after the coaching change. They still played listless defense and appeared to be overmatched in almost every game. Tapscott had a hard time getting Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler on the same page in terms of them both having great nights in the same game and that inconsistency greatly hurt the Wizards offense. Would Eddie Jordan have fixed that problem? The thing is that we don't know. A knee-jerk reaction by team president Ernie Grunfeld cost Jordan his job despite the fact that the team was missing 40% of their starting rotation. And it's hard to believe that Eddie Jordan at worst wouldn't have matched Tapscott's record of 18-53 the rest of the year, considering he had a winning percentage of .521 over the previous four seasons.
3. Loss to Cleveland on April 8
There couldn't be a more perfect game to sum up the Wizards 2008-2009 campaign than this loss in Cleveland towards the end of the season. Gilbert Arenas had played two of the previous five games but shut himself down before this game tipped off. Caron Butler struggled and seemed to be a shell of his former All-Star self. Antawn Jamison couldn't do anything to stop the bleeding for the Wizards and wasn't enough of a factor for Washington to matter. The young players showed nice flashes and tried to put up a fight but it wasn't close to being enough to keep them in a game against a team with superior talent. The Wizards were down by 20 points for most of this game. They shot poorly from the field, weren't nearly aggressive enough offensively, and gave up a lot of points off of their turnovers. Their offense was poor and their defense was even worse. And all in all, it simply didn't matter in the grand scheme of NBA doings. THAT is the Wizards season in a nutshell.
Player Recaps
- Gilbert Arenas - The Wizards would definitely like Gilly to either learn how to be healthy or learn how to not get injured this off-season. The Zero'd Agent has only played in 15 of the last 164 regular season games, which probably not the way that the Wizards wanted him to maximize the $26.5 million that they've paid him over this time period. But on top of the health issue, the Wizards need Gil to figure out that perfect balance between being a deadly scorer and getting his teammates involved. They don't need him to drop 30 if the rest of the team is just standing around while he's doing so. A more well-rounded Arenas this coming season (assuming he plays) is the best-case scenario for the Wizards prospects next year.
- Andray Blatche - First of all, I think that is ability to stop soliciting hookers has been incredible over the past 21 months has been incredible. That's a tough habit to break (just ask Jahidi White). But going into next year, the Wizards need Blatche to figure out how to be more of a force in the paint and how to stay on the court. Blatche has the length and athleticism to be a 15-point, 9-rebound kind of player. He also has the ability to finish in the top 15 in blocked shots every year. But he fouls too much and has a lot of lapses while on the court. If he can figure out how to sustain his focus throughout the ball game, he'll be impossible to keep off the court.
- Caron Butler - Caron Butler had slightly worse numbers overall than he did the previous year and yet was nowhere close to getting the same All-Star bid for the third straight year. He averaged a career high in points per game (20.8) and played nine more games than he did the previous year but his shooting percentages took a hit across the board and he dipped below two steals per game for the first time in three years. It's funny how he was underrated last year but ignorable this season because his team was significantly worse. He's missed 15 or more games the past three years and the Wiz would love for him to put in a 77-game season.
- Javaris Crittenton - It's really hard to judge Javaris Crittenton's play this season because he never played with Memphis and was foolishly placed behind the "veteran" Mike James for much of the season with Washington. But overall, you have to be happy with the 21-year old point guard's play considering he hit his third team in two years and was placed in such a terrible situation with a losing Wizards squad. His Per 36 numbers were nice with 9.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and close to a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. He needs to bring the free throw percentage (59%) way up and be more aggressive in attacking the defense. But he definitely belongs in this league.
- Juan Dixon - Juany was acquired in the off-season to bring a little veteran leadership and some scoring/shooting off the bench if called upon. I'm not so sure about the veteran leadership output but his scoring/shooting output was abysmal. He had his worst scoring season in his career in terms of points per 36 minutes and had his worst shooting season in five years. I don't think that he'll be asked back for next season and will have to sign somewhere else as a free agent.
- Brendan Haywood - Okay, Haywood only played six games due to the fractured wrist, which kept him out nearly the entire season. But when he did play, he was pretty good despite not being able to get into game-shape. But his scoring and rebounding numbers were on par for his career and his blocked shots were actually at an all-time high. His biggest tasks heading into next season will be not getting into an unnecessary fight with Etan Thomas and keeping his wrist from breaking.
- Mike James - I don't need numbers to back up the next statement I'm about to make because I watched a fair amount of Wizards games last year and know what I saw on a nightly basis. Mike James was the worst starting point guard in the NBA during the 2008-2009 season. He was awful at running the offense, awful at defending and couldn't shoot to save the teams' collective lives. It was ridiculous that he received the bulk of the minutes over Javaris Crittenton, especially considering this team was going nowhere. The worst thing that can happen to this next for next season is having him pick up his player option.
- Antawn Jamison - Jamison was the leading scorer (22.2) for the Wizards last year and definitely the most consistent player on their roster. He had the third best scoring season of his career and is still one of the greatest scorers around the basket that I've ever seen with his amazing touch. But there were two things wrong with him. 1) He's simply not a good enough scorer to carry a bad team to victories on a nightly basis. He doesn't have that same dominance that other scoring forwards have. And 2) he always looks like he has some sort of makeup on his face. Maybe it's rouge. Maybe it's guy-liner. Whatever it is, he looks like a cheap last resort of a Jackie Moon led team.
- JaVale McGee - When you're judging rookies and especially rookie big men who don't get a lot of trust from their coaches right away, you have to go by Per 36 numbers. Now, in looking at everyone's favorite rookie center from this year, Brook Lopez's Per 36 stats were 15.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks with 52.8% shooting from the field. JaVale's numbers? Try 15.4 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.4 blocks and 49% shooting from the field. McGee looks to be headed in the right direction after one season and will need to continue to learn how to play in the NBA to get his minutes. The talent is definitely there.
- Dominic McGuire - Dominic ended up being the role player who ended up receiving praise by the coaches and given 57 starts in his 79 games played. Was he spectacular and a breakout player? Not at all. But he proved to be a decent defender, didn't stop the ball on offense, and was willing to be active on both sides of the floor every minute he played. He's never going to be as good as Shane Battier but he's one of those no stats kind of good players that coaches love having on their squad. His mission this off-season is to extend his jump shooting range and making it with more consistency.
- Oleksiy Pecherov - Ahhhh, Oleksiy! I'm a huge Pecherov fan and I don't really know why. I've seen him play in most of his games but have never come away with anything that is truly impressive. I think I just randomly decided to like him and defend what he does on a basketball court (like Kings fans used to do with Darius Songaila). Pecherov simply didn't play much at all this year. He only appeared in 32 games and failed to crack 300 total minutes played. But going off of his Per 36 Minutes, he seemed to be very productive when he did get on the court. He gave the Wiz 15.1 points and 9.9 rebounds per 36 but shot a horrendous 38% from the field. He's going to have to figure out how to defend well and make the most of his opportunities in order to earn more playing time. Adding some muscle this off-season would go a long way.
- Darius Songaila - There's nothing spectacular about Darius and outside of a low rebounding rate, there really isn't anything wrong with him. He's a nice backup forward to have as the second or third big man off the bench. He's reliable to knock down the mid-range jumper and he has a knack for getting a couple of buckets around the basket. But he's never going to be the guy that you want to have coming first off the bench for your frontcourt. If he can get better at rebounding and defending around the hoop, that perception will change.
- DeShawn Stevenson - Stevenson tried to refer to himself as "Mr. 50" (referring to him shooting 50% from the field despite the fact that he ended up shooting 46%) a couple of seasons ago when the Wizards looked truly dangerous. The Wizards had no other real options for a shooting guard and had no clue what they had with Nick Young. Well, now that Nick Young looks promising and DeShawn Stevenson is coming off of an injury-riddled season in which he shot 31% from the field, it looks like they can't wait to unload the final $8 million and two years of his contract. And they should because his best days are behind him.
- Etan Thomas - When he's not having heart issues (physical not metaphorical), writing poetry, or fist fighting with Brendan Haywood, Etan is a decent defensive option down low who can rebound fairly well and block shots. But is he worth the $7 million plus that he's owed this season? Probably not. In fact, for a team so constricted on what they can do with their roster over the next three years, Etan is a very movable expiring contract this year and could be most valuable to this franchise as a piece to acquire another core player.
- Nick Young - Nick Young is a one-dimensional player much like J.R. Smith. They're both on their respective teams to provide explosive scoring off the bench. And Nick began to do that last season. Young had 12 games in which he scored 20 points or more in a game and 11 of those came off the bench. He averaged just 10 points per game but for a guard that is so young and still receiving inconsistent minutes. He needs to figure out how to be a more complete player and playmaker instead of just a gunner to avoid instances like last season when he had 15 games in which played 15 minutes or fewer.
Fan/Blogger Recap
From Jake the Snake, Bullets Forever
"With all due respect to players who fought valiant and left it all out on the court this season, this season was over as soon as the news broke that Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood would miss the majority of the season because of injury. Injuries are a fact of life for every team in the NBA, but it's nearly impossible to survive the loss of your best offensive and defensive player and still expect to contend for a playoff spot. There's no getting around the fact that it was a disappointing season for the Wizards, but there were still some bright spots this year. Dominic McGuire showed that he had a future with this team as a guy that can defend, rebound, and pass the ball extraordinarily well for a wing player. Rookie JaVale McGee, while raw, showed he could contribute as a dynamic shot-blocker and explosive dunker. Nick Young and Andray Blatche also displayed flashes of brilliance throughout the year. They, together with a [top five] pick this summer have many Wizards fans excited about Washington's young core. If that young core gets a chance to play with the Wizards established, veteran core next season, the 2008-09 season will become a distant memory very quickly. Somehow I get the feeling that no one will miss it all that much."
Coaching Situation - Flip Saunders, four years left
The Wizards decided to go the opposite way of teams like the Suns and Kings of the past few years in which they had offensive-minded squads and hired defensive-minded coaches to change the culture. Instead, the Wiz are embracing their offensive-minded players with a very intelligent offensive-minded coach who has the ability to implement effective zone defenses for his teams. Despite the playoff performances in Minnesota and the perception of his coaching ability in Detroit, Flip is a really good players coach who finds a way to maximize his team's strengths. If everybody is healthy for the Wizards this coming season, there really isn't a reason to assume Washington won't be back in the playoffs next season. They have the talent and now they have a really good coach to cultivate that talent, especially on the offensive end of the floor.
Roster Heading Into Off-Season
The Wizards officially have 13 players under contract and they have one player with a player option for next season. The roster breakdown is:
PG: Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton, Mike James (PO)
SG: DeShawn Stevenson, Nick Young
SF: Caron Butler, Dominic McGuire
PF: Antawn Jamison, Oleksiy Pecherov, Darius Songaila
C: Brendan Haywood, Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, Etan Thomas
Assuming that Mike James won't throw away $6 million dollars in order to make the veteran minimum if he gets signed at all, the Wizards will go into the off-season with 14 players under contract, the fifth pick in the draft and the 33rd pick in the draft. So there isn't a whole lot of wiggle room for the roster to improve or change. When the Wizards higher-ups inked Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison to those long-term contracts last off-season, they saddled themselves with virtually the same core roster for the next four years and the only hope of getting better through building chemistry and hoping to get lucky in the draft. But if the Wizards can get a little creative, they can still make a significant move or two to improve the roster.
With the fifth pick in THIS draft class, they are almost assured to get a good player who can probably start for them throughout the next decade. But they have to decide where their biggest need is. Winding up with a player like James Harden out of Arizona State would give them much more stability at the shooting guard position and allow them to move either Nick Young or DeShawn Stevenson (assuming someone wants cap relief for the summer of 2010) for another piece to the puzzle. The Wizards also have two significant expiring contracts to move in order to poach some talent on a cap-strapped franchise. Brendan Haywood's $6 million and Etan Thomas' $7.35 million both come off the books next summer and could either be shipped off separately or together in order to acquire a nice player to add to the Jamison, Butler, Arenas combo.
The trading of expiring contracts would definitely add a financial hardship to the future of the Wizards but perhaps, packaging Thomas and Haywood together for someone like Chris Kaman or Eddy Curry would be enticing enough for teams looking to shed long-term contracts.
Final Grade/Analysis: D-
I don't know that you can completely fail the Wizards team with such young talent having to step in for the missing 60% of the roster for more than half of the season and missing 40% for almost the entire year. Even though they had such a putrid record, they still cultivated some of their young talent and were able to look into the future of their roster. But a 19-win team is still a 19-win team and you have to be extremely disappointed in the fact that they played so poorly it cost a really good head coach his job. The future can't be as bleak as last season was but at the same time with their fixed roster being what it is, I don't know that there is a realistic chance to go deep into a playoff run.
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