| 28 May 2009
We've heard it time after time. A player coming out of high school or college is lauded because of his athletic ability. He is thought to be a great player because he has "tools" that will translate to being a great NBA player. He has pre-draft workouts that amaze teams and forces franchises to take notice. He played well in college but didn't set the world on fire, but that is easy to ignore because a team sees something special in this player. He is going to be grow to be a phenom no matter what he shows on the court to contradict it. He has upside.
So why am I writing about upside during the Conference Finals? Isn't this the time where truly great players shine and upside is forgotten? To answer those questions: Because I can write whatever I want whenever I feel it makes sense and upside is never forgotten.
The topic of upside and how it changes our perception of what is actually happening/going to happen can be seen in both the Eastern and Western Conference Finals, but it is even more apparent in the West.
The case study for this topic will be a comparison between Carmelo Anthony and Lamar Odom. Both were born in New York City and were raised on the East coast in very rough neighborhoods. Both were heavily recruited out of prep schools. Both had very good college careers. One was a proven winner with a very tangible set of skills (Anthony) while the other was praised for his length and ability to do a lot of little things (Odom).
With Anthony, the Nuggets knew what they were getting. A small forward that could score from anywhere on the court. He had the mentality of a winner and the ability to lead a team which he showed leading Syracuse to a National Championship in his freshman year. His skill set was defined with the additional ability to take over games and overcome double teams. He wasn't an upside player. He was already very good and could improve, but his ceiling wasn't too far from being reached out of college. People accepted that fact.
Odom was a little different. He had length to play multiple positions which was alluring. He was a jack of all trades but an expert of none. He could score points, grab rebounds and set up teammates. Odom showed all the potential of being one of the best players in the league. That potential landed him the nickname "The Goods" and has allowed many people (myself included) to buy into the hype that he would become a top five player.
This is where upside can fool you. No one is saying that Odom's career averages of 15, 8.8 and 4.2 with a block and a steal per game aren't impressive. Those stats are actually quite fantastic, and any normal player would be praised for them. But Odom was supposed to be a player that got better and better and didn't just hint at greatness. As it stands, the Lamar Odom that was drafted out of Rhode Island in 1999 is essentially the same player as we see playing for the Lakers right now, and that apparently makes him a disappointment.
Is it his fault that we all thought he would be the second coming? No. He was a victim of circumstance. We love to build players and their potential up to mythic proportions, and we love even more to tear them down when they don't live up to the expectations we gave them in the first place. We rip Odom because he isn't the type of guy that takes over games, but he never was that guy. We love to talk up his wasted potential, but what has he done other than fill up the stat sheet since coming into the league? The problem isn't what Odom does on the court; it's what we expected from him and the upside label that was given to him before he even started a single game. There is no doubt that this led to added pressure that make a player crack.
The upside discussion comes full circle in the weeks leading up to the NBA Draft.
We will hear time and time again over the next month about different players through Mock Drafts and workouts. Chad Ford and DraftExpress will tell us everything we want to know about every player and what each player could become if absolutely everything breaks exactly right. We'll hear about the leaping ability and athleticism of a certain player. Scouts will over-analyze verticals and measurements and break down every potential pick and why it works for each team.
At some point a player with tremendous upside will be taken in the draft, and everyone will laud the pick because this player has the potential to become a special player. The fans will get excited because the experts are telling them they should be. And that player will more often than not end up being about as good as when he was drafted. He'll be viewed as a disappointment if he doesn't exceed his skill set which makes no sense really. Buying into that upside makes a player seem like he should be more than he is.
Meanwhile another team will pick someone that has less expectations not because they aren't a good player or on their way to becoming one. The expectations are lower because the team knows what they're getting. You never hear anyone calling players like Shane Battier, David West, Kevin Martin or Carmelo Anthony disappointments because they weren't handed that upside tag. They've played exactly how everyone thought they would and improved on what little upside expectations that were placed on them.
Just remember this when you're screaming bust about your team's draft pick. Remember this the next time you wonder why Lamar Odom isn't playing up to his potential. Take the time to ask yourself if you're disappointed with someone's play or just not living up to his upside.
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