| 27 October 2009
While Flip Saunders isn’t the greatest coach on the planet or even one of the five best in the NBA, he almost always seems to manage a winner, no matter what the situation. In fact, he’s had his team finish first in their respective division in four of his last five seasons coaching. He’s nearly 200 games over .500 for his career and has tasted some steady success in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. He comes back into the league after taking a season off and will be eager to lead the Wizards back to the playoffs to prove that a Michael Curry replacement in Detroit was a franchise crippling decision (despite the fact that history has already proven it).
What does Flip bring to the Wizards that Eddie Jordan didn’t have? Eddie Jordan is regarded as a fantastic offensive-minded coach despite having a reputation for defense when he was a player. Under EJ, the Wizards usually were one of the ten best offensive teams while also being one of the ten worst defensive teams. With Flip, he turned a Detroit Pistons team from a great defensive, middle of the road offensive team into a still great defensive team, top offensive squad without really changing the main parts. With Minnesota, he was able to coach a pretty middle of the road defensive team while keeping them at the top of the offensive ranks.
Flip Saunders is not going to take anything away from this Wizards team as an offensive coach. In fact, he can probably run them better when Antawn Jamison is healthy while making them a respectable defensive squad. He’s very good at taking advantage of the zone defense rules and keeping his players active. That’s something Eddie Jordan couldn’t pull off. Flip inherits a still young but quickly maturing group of basketball players that can be molded by maximizing their strengths. That’s what Flip does.
Once again Wizards fans, you couldn’t have done better for yourselves.
Record Last Year: 19-63
Players Welcomed: Fabricio Oberto, Mike Miller, Randy Foye
Players Kicked to the Curb: Oleksiy Pecherov, Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila
Five Questions
1. Will Gilbert Arenas assist?
The rumor is Gilbert Arenas no longer wants to be the guy trying to lead the league in scoring. Apparently, he wants to be a 20-10 guy at the point guard position, which seems highly improbable considering he’s averaged just over 20 shot attempts per game in his three healthy seasons with Washington. Also, he wants to be a guy averaging 10 assists per game and getting his teammates involved but he’s never had more than 514 assists in a season and never topped 484 assists in a season since joining the Wizards. So can he really be the 20-10 guy he proclaims to want to be?
I think he will pull it off because he’s pretty good at trying to prove himself when people (anybody) say he can’t do something. We all know about the story of him having “zero percent chance” of making the NBA and that’s why he wears number zero. We also know about the trash-talking sessions on the court with Michael Redd and Kobe Bryant that turned into historic moments in Gilbert Arenas history. And of course, we are well aware of him challenging DeShawn Stevenson to any and every conceivable shooting contest known to man. I assume he’ll treat this no differently. His knee is completely healthy after suffering through months of Tim Grover workouts and his explosiveness has once again returned. He can easily harness his quickness and ability to set up the many shooters and scorers he’ll be surrounded by on a nightly basis. I also think a 20-10 performance from Gil every night with no more than 16 shot attempts per game makes this a very dangerous Wizards team. And dangerous Wizards teams usually go to the playoffs.
2. Should the Wizards go small?
I’m not going to lie; I ask this question primarily based on my experiences with the Wizards while playing NBA 2K10. In video game basketball, firepower reigns supreme over any other scheme or system. The ability to barrage an opponent with three-point attempts and turn the fear of said three-point attempt into hasty closeouts and easy blow-bys because of it is the key to any and all success in video game basketball. Some of you might be wondering if this tactic can work in real life. Well, look at the Phoenix Suns in their hey-day and check out the two seasons in which Nellie Ball seemed more like the wave of the future and less like the abortion of basketball. This style can be successful in concentrated stretches.
So why keep the Wizards from maximizing their assets from time to time with a small ball lineup? Against teams without a dominant big man or a great offensive rebounder, the Wiz could easily run a lineup of Gilbert Arenas-Randy Foye-Mike Miller-Caron Butler-Antawn Jamison on the floor and score points by the bushel (assuming of course that a bushel is still a viable unit of measurement and that it’s as plentiful as the name suggests). They wouldn’t be completely dominated on the boards because Jamison, Butler, and Miller are pretty good rebounders for their positions. Defensively, they might be in trouble unless Flip Saunders can unleash some of that zone goodness to slow down the opposing team. And offensively, they could be extremely fast-paced and spread the floor well enough to cause rotational hell. It’s nothing they could do for 30 minutes per game but it’s an idea worth exploring. I’ll now get back to my PS3 to come up with more “genius” strategies.
3. Is there anyway they miss the playoffs?
In the Eastern Conference the fifth best to the tenth best team is kind of a crapshoot. There are probably at least 10 teams in the East that are going to be picked as locks for the playoffs. Unfortunately, there are only eight spots and two of the teams that didn’t make the playoffs last season (Toronto and Washington) are much improved and ready to re-stake their claim as a post-season player. Last year, the Wizards snapped a four-year streak of making the playoffs with no Gilbert Arenas and an Eddie Jordan ousting. They finished with a pathetic 19 wins and managed to turn their 5th pick in the draft into some incredible depth and talent with Randy Foye and Mike Miller.
And now? They have a fantastic top-eight in their rotation with a ton of firepower and a coach that doesn’t really lose a lot of regular season games. They have a bona fide star player in Gilbert Arenas who knocks down clutch shots and three guys around him who can easily score 30 points on any given night. This seems like a team that can have a huge turnaround of nearly 25 to 30 more wins from last season and not just challenge for the eighth seed but also maybe even a top-four seed. I would be absolutely shocked if the Wizards miss the playoffs.
4. Andray Blatche or JaVale McGee? Who you got?
Andray Blatche is definitely the more complete player. He has a pretty decent outside shot and is a solid rebounder. He makes a good percentage of his free throws, blocks shots, and takes care of the ball. But he isn’t much of a passer, can be absent-minded on defense and is terrible at soliciting prostitutes without getting caught. He seems like an eternal bench player that might be able to blossom as a really good sixth or more likely seventh man some day for a playoff team.
JaVale McGee on the other hand is a lot less substance than Blatche but has a ton of more potential. The first thing you notice about McGee on the court is his length. Yes, Blatche is only an inch shorter than the second year player out of Nevada but JaVale’s wingspan of 7’6” seemingly dwarfs the 7’1” wingspan of Andray. McGee has an impressive 32-inch vertical to go with his length, which allows him to catch passes and rebounds above the box when he needs to. He glides through the air like Ralph Sampson but punctuates his plays like a young Tracy McGrady. McGee outperformed Blatche in nearly every statistical category over a 36-minute timeline and should be in line to crack the starting lineup when the team is healthy, well before Blatche is ever ready to do so. Right now, I’m taking McGee for presence over Blatche any day of the week. Not to mention, he does stuff like this:
5. How bad is the Antawn Jamison injury?
Right now, the Jamison shoulder injury is pretty damn serious. He’s out roughly six weeks from the date of the injury (October 14th), which puts him back around the first of December. But then he’ll have to play his wake back into shape and it’s not as simple as hitting the exercise bike from now until his comeback. It just doesn’t work that way. So if Jamison can’t be back for the Wizards in mid-season form until late December, you’ve missed roughly 40% of the regular season without one of the best scorers in the league. But that’s not all.
Look around the history of sports; shoulder injuries don’t really just go away. The only time I can remember an athlete being okay was the physical freak that is Allen Iverson. I believe quite a few years ago, he separated his shoulder, was scheduled to miss a few weeks and came back a couple of days later because he’s insane and apparently Wolverine. Things probably won’t go so smoothly for Jamison. His shoulder injury could linger well into the second half of the season and if it makes him timid around the basket, his scoring ability will suffer greatly. Smartest thing for the Wizards to do here is keep him off the court until he is absolutely ready.
Prediction: 4th in East, 2nd in Southeast
Overall, you might be pretty appalled that I’m picking a 19-win team to earn the fourth seed in the East. But as I stated above, they weren’t just any old 19-win team. They suffered major injuries, coaching issues, and some terrible defense that simply won’t be around the franchise this year (assuming Arenas is healthy). This was a playoff team before when Gilbert was running the show for himself and putting the onus on everybody else to get themselves involved. And now? They’re healthier, deeper, and coached by a guy who has had amazing success in this league, at least in terms of the regular season.
This team is making the playoffs and they aren’t just settling for the eighth seed.
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