| 16 April 2010
How did the Suns get here?
For much of the previous few seasons, there has been much said about the Suns parting ways with Amaré Stoudemire. Then the trade deadline passed and he didn’t end up in Cleveland like everyone assumed he would and the Suns started playing as good a brand of basketball as anyone in the NBA. They’ve posted a 23-6 record since the break including a 10-game win streak and a 14-2 mark during their last 16 games. During that 14-2 stretch to end the season, the Suns have beat four of the other Western Conference playoff teams, including a 93-87 win over Portland. Alvin Gentry has gotten this team to play some much-improved defense. The Suns are ranked 19th in defensive efficiency this season. While that may not sound impressive on paper, they play at the leagues fourth fastest pace, and compared to other teams with faster paces, Minnesota and Golden State come to mind, the Suns defensive efficiency looks great (the T’Wolves and Warriors are ranked 28 and 29 respectively). Even compared to last season, the Suns have moved up six spots in the rankings of that category.
How did the Blazers get here?
I’d hate to bring this up again for Zach, but Portland’s season started as it ended, riddled with injury. Just a little over a month into the season, Portland center, and Zach’s man-crush, Greg Oden, went down with injury. Since then, Joel Przybilla went down with a season-ending knee injury shortly after Oden went down. Guys like LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Fernandez and Nicolas Badtum (who was injured to begin the season) all missed significant time this season. Even Travis Outlaw was hurt when they traded him to the Clippers. Now the Blazers are headed to the post-season without their best player in Brandon Roy who suffered a torn meniscus on his right knee against the Lakers, with just two games remaining on their schedule. It was announced that Roy would have surgery, and will, at the very least, miss the whole Suns series. Even with all of the injuries, Portland won 50 games, which shows how resourceful Nate McMillan has been this season. Bringing in Marcus Canby from the Clippers was a huge move for them with Pryzbilla and Oden going down early. There isn’t much you can do about injuries except playing the guys you have, and McMillan has done a great job with this injury-riddled team.
More After The Jump
Match-Up History
08/09 – Tied 2-2
09/10 – Blazers 2-1
Match-Ups by Position
Point Guard – Steve Nash vs. Andre Miller
Andre Miller is having a good season with the Blazers – much like he’s had good seasons with Philly, Denver, The Clippers, and Cleveland. That’s just what he is, good. Andre Miller is, by no means at all, Steve Nash. The only reason anyone would ever mention them in the same sentence is when they’re writing playoff previews. Steve Nash isn’t having the greatest season of his career by any measures, but he looks like he’s having more fun on the court than he’s had since 2006. When Nash is having fun, it means trouble for opposing basketball teams. In games against Portland, Nash has a 10 to 3 assist/turnover ratio. That, my friends, is fantastic.
Advantage: Suns
Shooting Guards: Jason Richardson vs. Rudy Fernandez
This is, obviously, where Portland is going to hurt most. In the two games that Roy played in against the Suns, he averaged 25 points and 9.5 trips to the free-throw line – essentially Kevin Durant level calls from the refs (joke). On the flip side, Jason Richardson is averaging about three points below his career average, but he’s been more efficient than he’s ever been since he’s been playing with Nash. He’s getting better looks not having to be a high volume shooter, and is knocking those shots down. I’m a Rudy Fernandez fan, but he hasn’t been the same since his injury. His first step isn’t as devastating, and because of this, defenders have been able to play him closer, leading to a lower shooting percentage from three. Fernandez is going to need to be much more productive for Portland to have a chance.
Advantage: Suns
Small Forwards: Grant Hill vs. Nicolas Batum
This match-up is essentially the Lakers vs. the Thunder: The savvy veteran against the upstart youngster who shows a lot of promise. Batum is a wiry 6’8’’ forward who takes half of his field goal attempts from behind the three-point arch and knocks them down at a 40 percent rate. Grant Hill isn’t what he used to be athletically, but he knocks down the three at a 43 percent rate (albeit, he doesn’t shoot them as often as Batum), and does all of the little things that don’t show up in the box score. The biggest difference between the two (besides the age) is Hill’s commitment to the defensive end of the ball every single night. If Batum molds his game more around Hill’s, he’ll be a fine basketball player for a long time, but right now, I’m taking Grant Hill.
Advantage: Suns
Power Forwards: Amaré Stoudemire vs. LaMarcus Aldridge
On most nights, you go with LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge has a smooth game, has developed some post moves and has been a great second option for Brandon Roy. With Roy gone, Aldridge becomes closer to a first option, and it’s not in him to carry the load for an NBA basketball team. Especially when he has to guard Amaré Stoudemire on the other end of the floor. Stoudemire may dunk on nine heads this series. Dude has been on an absolute tear, and considering that he’s in a contract season, I don’t expect anything to change. Much of the reason behind Steve Nash looking like he’s having the time of his life is the fact that Stoudemire is making him look fantastic.
Advantage: Suns
Centers: Jarron Collins vs. Marcus Canby
Robin Lopez had a great second season for the Suns. He more than doubled his point and rebound averages and shot over 58 percent from the field. Problem is, he’s been ruled out for the entire series so the Suns will start Jarron Collins – probably the most offensively inept center against one of the best defensive centers of the last decade in Marcus Canby.
Advantage: Blazers
Bench: Dragic/Barbosa/Dudley/Amundson/Frye vs. Bayless/Webster/Pendergraph/Howard
I’m probably in the minority on this one, but I love watching Goran Dragic play. Dude is a micro-Steve Nash. Almost every time that I was able to catch a Suns game, he threw a pass that seriously wowed me. I expect Barbosa’s minutes to rise and the Dudley-Amundson-Frye contingent to continue to be great. For Portland, Bayless has shown flashes of growth, Martel Webster is and will always be, Martel Webster and Howard is as solid a back up center as he was a starting center in 1977. While Portland’s bench is far from just a collection of scrubs, it could really use a guy like Fernandez coming off the bench, too. This Suns bench has been fantastic for much of the season and I wholly expect that trend to continue.
Advantage: Suns
Coaching: Alvin Gentry vs. Nate McMillan
This is undoubtedly the toughest match-up. On one end, we have a coach who has taken a fast-paced offensive team and talked them into playing, at the very least, some defense. On the other end we have a coach who has watched his guys drop like flies all season (he even went down with an injury!) and has been the most resourceful coach in the league. You take Gentry if you like guys who come in and do what others couldn’t, you take McMillan if you like guys who get the job done even when he doesn’t have all of his tools. I can’t pick.
Advantage: Even
X-Factor: The Pace of the Game
I’ve already documented how fast the Suns play, well Portland plays slower than the Suns play fast as they have the slowest game pace in the NBA. Portland has won games by controlling the tempo with great half-court sets, not taking bad shots and getting back on defense after opposing teams’ defensive rebounds. The Suns win by out running guys. Interestingly though, the two games that the Blazers won, they allowed 102 and 101 points, respectively. In the game that they lost, they gave up 93. It’ll be interesting to see if the Blazers can slow them down, and if the slowed tempo results in wins.
Prediction – Suns in 5
While I don’t think the Blazers will get swept, I do believe that the Suns will move on to the second round rather easily on the back of the Nash-Stoudemire screen and roll.
(Note: All statistics were collected from HoopData.com)
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