| 16 April 2010
How the Celtics Got Here
To say that Boston (50-32) crawled into the playoffs would be unfair, but that is the perception among a large group of Boston fans and the media after finishing losing seven of their last ten games. Kevin Garnett said, "Anything is possible," after winning the 2008 NBA championship. The one thing he forgot in the equation was that you couldn’t stop time. Age has caught up to KG, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and the overpaid and overrated Rasheed Wallace, and it beat the Hell out a team that seemed nearly unstoppable only two years ago. They won the Atlantic Division almost by default, as every other team was average at best. With all that said, this is still a playoff tested group of veterans that is looking to turn the switch on now that the real season is about to begin.
How the Heat Got Here
Miami (47-35) has tried to appease Dwyane Wade this year by making some moves and lately it has resulted in a team as hot as a summer day in South Beach. The acquisitions of Jermaine O'Neal and Quentin Richardson have helped to ease the burden felt by Wade. Winners of twelve of the last thirteen games, Miami has some of the confidence and swagger that Boston used to have. Most importantly, they have the best player in the series, Wade, who has followed up last year's MVP caliber season with another spectacular season. Call them the Bizarro Celtics if you will, as fortune has turned in their favor while the Celtics have started an inevitable decline. Miami isn't without their own injury issues, as O'Neal is trying to nurse a sore ankle, and Michael Beasley is still not the star the Heat had hoped he would become, but this is a chance for him to prove his merit. Both O'Neal and Beasley have something to prove.
Match-up History
07/08 – Celtics 4-0 in Regular Season
08/09 – Celtics 3-1 in Regular Season
09/10 – Celtics 3-0 in Regular Season
Match-ups by Position
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo vs. Carlos Arroyo/ Mario Chalmers
It's time to give Rondo credit. He has cut down turnovers, harnessed some of the recklessness he showed as a youngster and has become an elite point guard. Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers? Not so much. Neither have the athleticism or speed to keep up with Rondo. We saw a similar situation last year with Tony Parker working the Dallas Mavericks' guards. Rondo dominates his opponent on both ends and could get in the head of the Heat PG's. He also will give help defense in defending Dwyane Wade. On the other end, the Heat will be forced to help on defense to stop his penetration and the only hope will be to let him shoot jumpers. If his stroke is true, this series could end in a hurry.
Advantage: Celtics
Shooting Guard: Ray Allen vs. Dwyane Wade
The pendulum of power (which sounds like some He-Man episode, really) has shifted in Wade's favor. Allen will always have one of, if not, the most beautiful stroke in the game and he has shut people up by averaging 16.7 points a game this season. The fact of the matter is that he's just much older and less athletic than Wade, a top five player. Wade was my pick last year for MVP and still is underrated, if that is even possible. Allen will need to wear Wade out by running screen after screen on offense in hopes of slowing him down by the fourth quarter. Tony Allen will also be called upon to match the speed and hops of D-Wade. He can't match his basketball IQ though and that will be critical in the match-up.
Advantage: Heat
Small Forward: Paul Pierce vs. Quentin Richardson
Pierce will live on in the memories of Celtics fans everywhere some day. He will add to that legend in this series. That happens when you play against a one-dimensional player like Richardson. To stop him you guard the three-point line. Pierce prides himself on defense, at least he does after KG showed up, and will bring that and more for to the series. Few players are as savvy as Pierce, who always finds ways to bait guards into foul trouble. Talk trash all you want about Pierce's age but it didn't stop him from leading the Celtics in scoring. He's still the team's offensive general and will break down Richardson.
Advantage: Celtics
Power Forward: Kevin Garnett vs. Michael Beasley
This is easily the most compelling match-up of the series. Ever since Garnett injured his knee last season there is something off about him. Maybe it was only a matter of time before KG couldn't punch the Big Ticket anymore but the question is whether that time has definitively come for him. He won't drop a 20-10 stat sheet every night but he is still the soul of Boston. Beasley, on the other hand, has youth on his side and somewhat stepped up his sophomore year in the Association but he hasn't played in a playoff series against a player like Garnett. If Garnett bests Beasley, he will have another scalp to post on his wall for the naysayers. If Beasley wins out, he will have stamped his name on the playoffs and helped usher a future Hall of Famer out the first round door. We're not ready to bury KG just yet.
Advantage: Celtics
Center: Kendrick Perkins vs. Jermaine O'Neal
The time has come for O'Neal to live up to the promise that so many of us wanted him to fulfill in his career. Unfortunately, and pretty predictably, he has an injury heading into the playoffs. Perkins is just flat out nasty and makes up for his limited offensive skill set with a monstrous knack for rebounding and blocking shots. If O'Neal can handle the punishment and channel the ghosts of Shaq and Alonzo Mourning, then the edge goes to the Heat. But it won't be easy.
Advantage: Heat
Bench: Daniels/Wallace/Finley/Allen/Robinson/Davis vs. Chalmers/Haslem/Wright/Anthony
Neither bench is going to blow you away. The Celtics have a pine full of big names with Michael Finley, Rasheed Wallace and Nate Robinson but there is very little there when it comes to actual productivity. The lesser names of Glen Davis, Marques Daniels and Tony Allen are really the players who pack a punch and that depth will outlast Mario Chalmers, Dorell Wright, Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony. Anthony could be looking at plenty of minutes if O'Neal can't hang with the Celtics.
Advantage: Celtics
Coaching: Doc Rivers vs. Erik Spoelstra
Phil Jackson has been known as the Zenmaster but Rivers deserves a helping of praise for dealing with so many personalities. Introducing Rasheed Wallace and Nate Robinson to the team this year only added to the team with a thousand egos, not all of them bad. He also has the benefit of deep playoff runs recently. Spoelstra has worked well with a Miami team that is on the rise but he still has much to learn.
Advantage: Celtics
X-Factor: Kevin Garnett
We brought up the famous quote from KG. It, however, is impossible to know how much he can bring to this series. Will we get the angry Garnett that has risen high for alley oops and made it a point to embarrass whoever he was guarding? Or will we see the more timid and silent player that has appeared for much of the 2009-2010 season? If the Big Ticket rises from the grave so many seem ready to bury him in, we could see a Celtics squad that resembles its former champion self.
Prediction: Celtics in 7
The Heat have the momentum. The Celtics have the experience. Which will win out? Dwyane Wade is the best player in the series and you always have a chance as a team when that's the case. The Celtics also have lacked confidence and the ability to shut down teams at home. Both of those factors will turn this into a long series, nothing new for a Celtics team that seemed to have Game 7 stapled to their collective forehead the past two years. But you can never underestimate how much of an impact pride plays and the Celtics possess more than enough of that amongst their squad. It will be enough to carry the Big Three once more into the trenches of the second round where a certain King James and his men will be waiting to get revenge for a 2008 title they feel slipped through their hands.
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