| 17 April 2011
The Memphis Grizzlies were a popular pick to compete at the 8th seed going into their 1st round series against the San Antonio Spurs, and for good reason - Manu is coming off of an elbow injury (non-shooting arm), and the Grizzlies have either out-worked the Spurs in the paint or forced turnovers (the Grizzlies are in the top of the league in both categorites) in regular season match-ups and get consistently good offensive games from Zach Randolph against the defense of DeJuan Blair and Matt Bonner.
Today, the Grizzlies at least played to one of those strengths - strong offense in the post. Zach Randolph was 10/15 from the field and got to the line for 8 attempts, scoring 25 points, adding 14 boards and 3 assists to 4 turnovers. Marc Gasol had one of the best games of his career, going 9/10 from the field and 6/10 from the line for 24 points, adding 9 boards and 3 assists to only 2 turnovers along with 2 blocks. Both players were exactly where they needed to be at all times on offense and Marc did a solid job helping on defense, especially in the 4th quarter. Zach Randolph was his usual self, struggling to move and help on D, but trying his damnedest to do so.
Alongside the expected contributors for the Grizzlies, Mike Conley was solid if unspectacular on offense. He scored well by attacking and also racked up key assists, all while making smart plays late in the game both in transition and in halfcourt sets.
He was also ripped to shreds (as expected) by both George Hill and Tony Parker, absolutely unable to contain their drives (although part of his struggles can be blamed on less-than-stellar defensive partner Zach Randolph).
OJ Mayo battled through a 1-9 start to key a late 3rd quarter run and also contributed in the final stanza. Shane Battier drilled a clutch 3 that put the Grizzlies up by 2 after falling behind by 2 with a minute to go in the game. Sam Young was horrible (not a shock) and Darrell Arthur struggled on both ends of the floor (pretty big surprise). Tony Allen battled through a 1st quarter injury and foul trouble to make huge clutch plays in the 4th quarter (he missed 2 key free throws, as well, but made up by going 2/2 from the line to score the final points of the game).
The Grizzlies won a playoff game for the first time ever, 101-98.
But it's likely that Manu Ginobili's return will tip the scales in the favor of the Spurs.
Because the Spurs still almost beat these Grizzlies without Ginobili, while being dominated by Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph on the offensive end. Tony Parker missed a lot of shots he normally makes (4/16 from the field, and there were a lot of open looks and layups that rimmed out) and it's likely both he and George Hill will continue to abuse Mike Conley throughout the series. Duncan's ability to finish on the pick and roll isn't going away, either. Manu's return offers only another 3-point shooting ball handler who can drive into the lane and find the open man, be he a shooter in the corner or a big on the baseline ready to draw a foul.
To take on a more general perspective, without Marc having career games against Tim Duncan every night, the Grizzlies are going to need to force turnovers against the Spurs to get easy buckets. The problem is that the Grizzlies have been fairly hit-or-miss in turning the Spurs over at a high rate (an every-other-game against them-type situation). Couple that with the way the Grizzlies were abused on defense in this game (only surrendering an eFG% of 44.3, but also giving up 51.4 FT/FG, which is pretty much astronomical) and you've got a recipe for what may be some close games, but also likely a Spurs win in the series.
The return of Ginobili (and a return to the mean for both teams) may spell doom for the Grizzlies, but this series should still see a lot of close games. And that's really what counts. High fives all-around for the playoffs!
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