The Yi Quandary
By Cory Elfrink - Email Cory
OK, Milwaukee GM Larry Harris. You got yourself into this and you had to see it coming. So what were you thinking?
The only sure thing about June’s NBA Draft besides Oden and Durant being the top two picks, is that Yi Jianlian would only play on the West Coast, Atlanta, Chicago, Phoenix or Boston. So why then did he end up with Milwaukee with the sixth overall pick?
“He was the best guy left.” Ok, but isn’t telling a team "I don't want to workout for you because I absolutely do not want to play in your city" just as effective as saying "please trade me"?
Yi’s handlers have specifically said they want him to play in a city with a high percentage of Asian-Americans. They also only invited 9 teams to his pre-draft workouts. Golden State, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Seattle, and Houston were each invited and are among the few NBA cities boasting an Asian-American population beyond 5%. The Suns and Bulls were also invited to workouts and came away impressed with Yi’s skills, athleticism and, of course, his up-side.
The Bucks? They were never invited to see Yi work out or to meet with him. Perhaps this has to do with Wisconsin’s rank among the lowest Asian-American populated states.
Which brings us to this week’s trade that should happen. The good news is Yi can play and he is a coveted prospect by many GMs so a deal can be found. Keep in mind, once a drafted player is signed, he can not be traded for 60 days.
DIAGNOSING MILWAUKEE
The Bucks have only committed $40 million to next year’s roster which currently is just eight players deep. That means they are roughly $15-$20 million under the anticipated salary cap. This gives them good cap flexibility to trade under the Collective Bargaining Agreement. The roster has no depth, so they would probably want more players back than they give up in any trade.
Milwaukee anticipates resigning 24 year-old Mo Williams and their reported offer of five years and $40 million might be good enough to stand. Williams could be an attractive sign-and-trade piece because many teams are looking to upgrade at PG but cannot afford to sign him outright. The Bucks also drafted promising Nevada PG prospect Ramon Sessions and can expect to sign him to a near-minimum.
What does Milwaukee want in return for Yi? They need to surround Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut with the missing ingredients. From the outside looking in, they need a distributor, rebounding, durability, and another scorer to take pressure off of Redd besides Charlie Villanueva and Bobby Simmons.
So who wants him? The short list would be the Lakers, Warriors, Sonics, Rockets, Kings, Suns and Bulls. Let’s take a look at Yi’s market.
WARRIORS
Golden State is a natural fit for Yi. Not only is the Bay Area heavily populated by Asian-Americans, but Nellie loves athletic big men with a jump shot. Don Nelson was critical in the development of Dirk Nowitzki and he could have the same influence on Yi. What could GM Chris Mullin give up for Yi?
Bucks receive: Brandan Wright and Sarunas Jasikevicius
Warriors receive: Yi Jianlian
Brandan Wright has already been signed so he would not be a tradeable asset for 60 days. Wright brings good size and phenomenal athleticism which the Bucks are lacking. Earlier this off-season Jasikevicious picked up his player’s option for $4 million but it is widely anticipated the Warriors will try and move him this summer. He is a capable guard but more of a shooter than distributor.
SUPERSONICS
Seattle has been the most active team in this young off-season under the direction of new GM Sam Presti. However, they are overloaded at SF with Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Wally Szczerbiak all manning the position. None of the players are strong enough to play PF in the West and its doubtful that they could play SG so somebody has to go. Their current bigs don’t pose much of an offensive threat beyond six feet so Yi’s game would be a huge asset to P.J. Carlesimo’s offense. The Sonics have also shopped Luke Ridnour and appear to want an upgrade at the PG position.
Bucks receive: Nick Collison, Jeff Green, Luke Ridnour
Sonics receive: Yi Jianlian, Mo Williams
Obviously, this would require a sign and trade with Mo Williams but it works out for both teams. Seattle would not be interested in signing Williams outright because it would put them over the cap and leave them with three PGs including Earl Watson. Williams is the best and youngest of the three. Presti would also be shedding salary if he could move Collison and Ridnour. Moving the very capable Collison would have a dual-purpose of opening up some minutes for Yi behind Chris Wilcox.
Green, Collison, and Ridnour are all potential starters for Milwaukee. The Bucks would view this as a huge win by acquiring three quality rotation guys for two guys that want to get out of town.
The curious thing about this scenario is that Yi was on the board when Seattle made the call to select Green with the fifth pick. A Green for Yi straight up would be far easier to orchestrate, but the exchanging of additional players make this a better deal for both teams.
LAKERS
It’s no secret that Yi would love to be in a Lakers uniform next season and it’s not too absurd to think it could happen. The Lakers have a big asset in Kwame Brown’s expiring contract and given Kobe Bryant’s demands to get competitive, the consistently absent-minded Brown does not have a place on next season’s roster. They are also desperate for a PG with only Jordan Farmar and Javaris Crittenton slated to suit up at that position
Bucks receive: Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, draft pick
Lakers receive: Yi Jianlian, Mo Williams
This would require another sign-and-trade of Williams. Mo would see 35 plus minutes a night with the Lakers and would give them an additional perimeter threat which they badly need. Yi could provide the same threat but may not see quality minutes in his first season. However, he seems as good an option as Brian Cook, Kwame, or Vladi Radmanovic.
If Yi pans out to be a quality NBA starter and potential All-Star, then the Lakers coud expect to sell out the Staples Center for as long as he’s there. This would have to provide some comfort to owner Jerry Buss who has to realize Kobe may be gone in a couple years.
The Bucks could actually use Kwame. They need a big that can man the post and collect rebounds. They can also use the cap space he will give them next summer to make another free agent splash. Crittenton is a strong prospect but he is at least a year away. The Lakers would almost have to include a future first-round pick in order for Milwaukee to consider sending them both Yi and Mo.
KINGS
Everyone on the Kings roster appears available but why would they want Yi? Sacramento actually boasts the fourth highest percentage of Asian-Americans in the U.S. The Kings are seeking a new arena and the popularity boost that Yi would bring might be enough to get it. They already have Kenny Thomas, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and Ron Artest all playing forward so, to make room for Yi, someone has to go. They may also seek to include Mike Bibby, who is due $28 million over the next two seasons, in return for the similar, but younger, Mo Williams.
Bucks receive: Mike Bibby, Ron Artest, Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Kings receive: Yi Jianlian, Mo Williams, Bobby Simmons
Right away, this seems too big to be pulled off, but some variation of a Bucks/Kings deal could be sought. Also, it is debatable if the Bucks would be interested in Ron Artest. If they are, this trade could make them an Eastern Conference playoff team with a Bibby-Redd-Artest-Villanueva-Bogut starting lineup.
Mike Bibby would project to be a force in the East. He is a reliable scorer and ball-handler and as of right now, he’s better than Mo Williams.
The Kings would get their desired youth in the 19 and 24 year-olds and Simmons should be able to contribute immediately in place of Artest. However, they may actually be a worse team in the immediate future. Such is the burden of investing. The owners Maloof are no strangers to gambling and they may feel this is exactly what they need to shake things up.
SUNS
The Suns liked what they saw of Yi’s workouts and tried to move up in the draft to get him or another one of the top prospects. They need to get more size and at 7’0” Yi has plenty. They also have been told by ownership that they need to cut a significant amount of salary before the luxury tax kicks in. They would not be willing to move one of their starters for Yi, but they have other assets the Bucks might be interested in, namely Wisconsin alum Alando Tucker.
Bucks receive: Boris Diaw, Alando Tucker, Marcus Banks
Suns receive: Yi Jianlian, Earl Boykins, Dan Gadzuric
This scenario would require a sign-and-trade with Earl Boykins and would have to wait almost 2-months due to Tucker’s quick signing with the Suns.
The Suns would shed Diaw’s five years and $45 million and Banks’ four years and $16 million. Boykins would seem to be a perfect fit because of his quick pace and deadly shooting. Plus, when has D’Antoni ever noticed a defensive liability? Gadzuric gives them an athletic big that can eat up minutes and play a legit center. He is at his best when he can run the floor and crash the boards, which translates into another career year in Phoenix. Yi wouldn’t see too many minutes his first season, but his perimeter play and rebounding would be welcomed.
The Bucks would get a lot in return. Diaw would play a dual-forward giving head coach Larry Krystowiak depth along with Charlie Villanueva and Bobby Simmons. Banks could come in at point guard right away as a starter or back-up a re-signed Mo Williams. He’s just 25, averaged 12-5-3 two years ago with Minnesota, and would likely be out to prove himself after being benched in Phoenix. Alando Tucker, if nothing else, should sell some tickets to the loyal Badgers fans. He would be a quality back-up to Michael Redd.
BULLS
The Bulls biggest need this off-season was offense in the post. Instead, they came out of the draft with Joakim Noah, a defensive specialist who can rarely hit a shot outside of six feet. The 19 year-old Yi does not have a polished post game at this point, but he shows plenty of promise. He can also stretch the other team’s defense allowing Ben Wallace, Tyrus Thomas and Luol Deng to work the post.
Bucks receive: Joakim Noah, Chris Duhon
Bulls receive: Yi Jianlian
Noah brings the strength and rebounding that Milwaukee needs on the post and Duhon is a quality PG and could conceivably start if they don’t resign Mo Williams.
The hold up would be Yi’s lack of defensive commitment. He does not fit the prototypical Scott Skiles’ mindset. That may be exactly what attracts GM John Paxson to the Chinese forward. Too much of the same thing is not always a recipe for success.
ROCKETS
What an excellent gimmick. Yi would suit up next to Yao as the needed PF new head coach Rick Adelman is looking for. Yi’s transition into the League would be made easier by his mentor, Yao Ming. The Rockets would still be weak at PF so they would lok to re-sign Chuck Hayes or pursue a veteran such as Chris Webber. What could Houston give up?
Bucks receive: Refer Alston and Shane Battier
Rockets receive: Yi Jianlian
It’s a simple two for one but it is debatable how much trade value Alston and Battier have. They both look overpaid and Milwaukee might be more interested in Bonzi Wells, Kirk Snyder or Luther Head.
WHEN WILL IT HAPPEN?
Owner Herb Kohl has been consistently adamant that Yi will play with the Bucks next year, but at some point he will have to seek out his options. There are plenty of teams that would like to have him and the Bucks have plenty of needs on their roster. It may not happen immediately, but sooner or later, Yi will be dealt.